EIA Revises Global Oil Production, Demand for 2019 Lower
WASHINGTON, D.C. (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration revised its
projections for world oil production and demand for 2019 slightly lower
although lifted its assumption for output from oil producing countries that are
not affiliated with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from
month prior, according to its Short-term Energy Outlook released this afternoon.
In their outlook, EIA projects global oil production would average 101.79
million bpd this year, down 5,000 bpd from December expectations, while up 1.38
million bpd from 2018. That's slightly above EIA expectations that world oil
consumption would average 101.54 million bpd this year, revised down 7,000 bpd
from December, and reflects annualized growth of 1.54 million bpd.
EIA also released its outlook for 2020, calling for a 1.7 million bpd
year-on-year increase in world oil production to 103.49 million bpd, with
global oil demand projected at 103.07 million bpd, up 1.53 million bpd from
this year's assumption.
Non-OPEC oil production for this year is expected at 65.54 million bpd,
revised up a sharp 2.2 million bpd from December, while up 2.37 million bpd
against the 2018 output rate. For 2020, EIA forecasts non-OPEC oil production
at 67.44 million bpd.
"EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million b/d in
2018, reaching its highest level and seeing its largest volume growth on
record. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 12.1 million b/d in
2019 and 12.9 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the
Permian region of Texas and New Mexico" said EIA.
EIA lowered OPEC production estimated for 2019 from its December outlook at
38.32 million bpd to 36.24 million bpd, and sees OPEC production at 36.05
million bpd in 2020. Lower OPEC output expectations follow an OPEC agreement to
cut production by 800,000 bpd for the first six months of 2019.
"Recent trade data show that OPEC crude oil exports declined about 10% from
November to December, suggesting OPEC members began reducing oil production
ahead of the scheduled reductions in 2019," EIA
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