Oil Prices Edge Higher After Slump on Oversupply Signs


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil prices edged higher Wednesday (10/15) morning, 
rebounding from the drop of the prior session that had been pressured by signs 
of a market tilting significantly into oversupply.

   NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery rose $0.45 to $59.15 bbl, and 
ICE Brent for December delivery gained $0.35 to $62.74 bbl.

   In oil products, November RBOB gasoline futures climbed $0.0088 to $1.8374 
gallon.

   Front-month ULSD futures, however, bucked the trend, retreating by $0.0045 
to $2.1931 gallon.

   The U.S. dollar index softened 0.170 points to 98.640 against a basket of 
foreign currencies.

   The International Energy Agency, in its monthly oil report published Tuesday 
(10/14), raised its oversupply forecast for 2026 to an unprecedented 4 million 
bpd. That was 18% higher than what the IEA predicted in its September report. 
The agency has been steadily raising supply estimates in anticipation that 
growth in oil production will rapidly outpace demand.

   The IEA has highlighted global oil inventories at a four-year high in 
August, from an acceleration in stock builds driven by surging OPEC+ 
production, and the producer group's commitment since to ramp up output even 
further.

   The IEA's forecast of a record high oil glut came as Brent for March 
delivery and beyond, and WTI for February delivery and beyond, were both in 
contango -- a dynamic where contracts for nearby delivery traded at a discount 
to contracts scheduled farther out.

   Brent's six-month calendar spread traded at $0.25/bbl at Tuesday's close, 
the lowest since early May, while the twelve-month spread flipped into contango 
for the first time since June, DTN data showed.

   The Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report 
(WPSR), typically published on a Wednesday, is delayed until tomorrow (10/16) 
due to the Columbus Day federal holiday on Monday (10/13).

   The American Petroleum Institute, which publishes its own oil supply-demand 
data on Tuesdays, ahead of the WPSR, has deferred its publication until later 
today.

    




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