MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News July 7th:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- San Francisco CARBOB Falls 5.75cts on Softer Trade
-- PBF Torrance Refinery Reports First Flare Event Since May 22
-- USGC Jet Fuel Basis Sets New 15-Month Low
-- Midwest ULSD Discounts Widen as Futures Rally
-- EIA: U.S. Crude, Product Exports Rise 15% in April
-- EIA: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.5% Year-on-Year
-- EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline, Distillates Build on Week; Jet Drops
-- EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Expand, Rise 15.4% on Year
-- EIA: PADD 1 Distillates Stocks Dip, Jet Up on Higher Runs
-- EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Lowest in 9 Months
-- EIA: Crude Stocks Rise After 10-Week Drawdown
-- Trump Ends Ceasefire With Iran Amid New Hormuz Attacks
NEWS:
San Francisco CARBOB Falls 5.75cts on Softer Trade
San Francisco CARBOB gasoline basis weakened Wednesday (7/8), extending
recent softness in the West Coast gasoline market as spot values eased.
San Francisco CARBOB basis declined by 5.75cts gallon following a trade cited
by market participants at a 29cts premium to August NYMEX RBOB futures. The
trade compared with the prior assessment at a 34.75cts premium.
Despite the latest decline, West Coast gasoline markets continue to be
influenced by refinery operations, regional supply conditions and inventory
trends, with traders closely monitoring developments across California's
refining system.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 5 region slipped by 300,000 bbl to 28.9
million bbl during the week ended July 4, ending a four week streak of
inventory increases, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Weekly
Petroleum Status Report showed. Gasoline stocks were 1.5 million bbl lower than
the same week last year.
PADD 5 gasoline imports fell by 60,000 bpd to 105,000 bpd during the profile
week and were 7,000 bpd lower than the same week last year.
PBF Torrance Refinery Reports First Flare Event Since May 22
PBF Energy reported an unplanned flaring event at its 166,000 bpd Torrance,
California refinery which began Wednesday (7/8) at 1:21 p.m. PT, according to a
filing with the South Coast Air Quality Management District.
The filing listed the reason for the event as a "mechanical/electrical
malfunction" and estimated the flaring activity could exceed reporting
thresholds for more than 100 pounds of volatile organic compounds (VOC), more
than 500 pounds of sulfur oxides (SOx), and 100,000 standard cubic feet of
cumulative vent flow gas during the event.
The Torrance refinery has experienced multiple flaring events this year tied to
both planned maintenance activity and operational disruptions. The latest
filing marks the refinery's first reported flare event since May 22, when the
facility reported an unplanned flare tied to operational issues.
The latest filing also comes as the California refining system remains under
pressure following the shutdown of Phillips 66's 139,000 bpd Los Angeles
refinery and the ongoing closure of Valero's 145,000 bpd Benicia refinery,
tightening fuel supply conditions across the West Coast.
USGC Jet Fuel Basis Sets New 15-Month Low
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) jet fuel basis extended its decline Wednesday (7/8),
falling to a fresh 15-month low, as rallying futures of ultra-low sulfur diesel
(ULSD) continued to outpace movements in the physical market.
USGC jet fuel basis was assessed at a 61.75cts discount to August NYMEX ULSD
futures, weakening 8cts from Tuesday's 53.75cts discount and reaching its
lowest level since March 31, 2025, when it was assessed at a 90.25cts discount,
DTN Energy data showed.
Front-month ULSD futures continued higher Wednesday, settling at $3.7243
gallon, up 42.26cts, or 12.8%, from Tuesday's settlement of $3.3017 gallon.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that Gulf
Coast jet fuel inventories declined by 200,000 bbl to 16.6 million bbl during
the week ended July 3. Despite the weekly draw, inventories remained 1.6
million bbl above the level reported during the corresponding week in 2025.
The wider discount reflects ULSD futures rising faster than Gulf Coast
physical jet fuel values, keeping pressure on basis levels.
Midwest ULSD Discounts Widen as Futures Rally
Cash discounts for Midwest ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) widened sharply
Wednesday (7/8) as surging NYMEX futures stymied physical spot market demand.
In Chicago trade, ULSD was talked at a discount of 48.5cts gallon to August
futures, widening 6.5cts on the day. On the Wolverine and Buckeye pipelines,
spot discounts widened 10cts to finish at 45cts gallon below the prompt
contract.
Among Group 3 products, the basis for ULSD was cited at a 37.5cts gallon
futures discount, widening by 10.5cts from the prior session. The weaker
physical differentials developed despite a sharp crude rally sparked by the
U.S. canceling its ceasefire agreement with Iran.
Front-month August NYMEX ULSD futures jumped 36.58cts to settle at $3.6575
gallon on Wednesday following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle
East that raised concerns about global supply tightness.
Adding to the downward pressure on Midwest distillates, Energy Information
Administration data on Wednesday showed PADD 2 distillate inventories rising
500,000 bbl to 28.3 million bbl during the week ended July 3. Regional imports
fell 18,000 bpd on the week to cushion the build, although stocks remained 3.7
million bbl above year-ago levels.
EIA: U.S. Crude, Product Exports Rise 15% in April
U.S. petroleum exports rose to 13.6 million bpd in April, 15% more than in
March as disruptions to international crude oil and refined product flows
through the Strait of Hormuz, triggered global demand for U.S. exports, the
Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (7/8).
Crude oil exports reached the largest share of total petroleum exports,
averaging 5.6 million bpd in April, 21% more than the previous record set in
December 2023. Propane made up the second-largest share, with exports exceeding
the 2.0 million bpd mark for the first time in monthly data. Distillate fuel
oil made up the third-largest share, increasing to 1.6 million bpd, the most
since July 2017, according to EIA data.
U.S. exports of distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, jet fuel, and petroleum
coke were the highest since December 2024, except for motor gasoline, which
remained relatively average.
Exports of other products including jet fuel, unfinished oils, and naphtha
reached record highs in March, and remained high in April but slightly below
their record levels.
EIA's recent weekly estimates suggest crude oil, distillate fuel, jet fuel,
and propane exports remained above five-year (2021--2025) seasonal highs in May
and June.
EIA: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.5% Year-on-Year
The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (7/8) overall
ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.093 million bpd in the week
ended July 3, down 24,000 bpd week-on-week and 6,000 bpd, or 0.5% higher than
in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.1 million bpd was
18,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.032 million bpd, down 21,000 bpd
week-on-week and 4,000 bpd, or 0.4% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average output at 1.041 million bpd was 17,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 901,000 bpd, down 20,000 bpd
week-on-week and 21,000 bpd, or 2.3% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average blendind demand at 916,000 bpd was 11,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 12,000 bpd on the week while inputs
in the Midwest were up 2,000 bpd, down 11,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and up
1,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 23.928 million bbl, down 762,000
bbl week-on-week and 293,000 bbl, or 1.2% higher than in the same week last
year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.458 million bbl, down 191,000
bbl week-on-week and 676,000 bbl, or 10.5% lower than in the same week last
year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 10.027 million bbl, down 397,000
bbl week-on-week and 166,000 bbl, or 1.7% higher than in the same week last
year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 5.01 million bbl, up 54,000 bbl
week-on-week and 988,000 bbl, or 19.7% higher than in the same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.106 million bbl, down 219,000
bbl week-on-week and 211,000 bbl, or 10% lower than in the same week last year.
EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline, Distillates Build on Week; Jet Drops
Midwest gasoline and distillate fuel stocks rose last week, while crude oil
and jet fuel balances fell, the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
reported Wednesday (7/8), citing data for the week ended July 3.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 2 region built by 400,000 bbl on the
week to 44.3 million bbl, according to the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status
Report. On the year, PADD 2 gasoline stocks were down by 1.8 million bbl from
the 46.1 million bbl level seen during the corresponding week last year.
Weekly imports of gasoline into the Midwest region rose by 2,000 bpd on the
week to average 16,000 bpd during the current reporting period. This inbound
volume remained unchanged from the year-ago level of 16,000 bpd recorded during
the corresponding week last year.
Distillate fuel oil inventories in the PADD 2 region rose by 500,000 bbl on
the week to reach a total of 28.3 million bbl. That build placed regional
distillate inventories at 3.7 million bbl higher than the 24.6 million bbl
logged during the corresponding week last year. Distillate imports into the
region averaged 3,000 bpd, down by 18,000 bpd on the week and falling by 4,000
bpd from the year-ago period.
Jet fuel stocks fell by 600,000 bbl from the prior week to 6.9 million bbl,
standing 800,000 bbl above the previous year's level. Inbound jet fuel
shipments to the Midwest remained at zero, representing an unchanged status on
both the week and the year under current reviews.
Crude oil inventories decreased by 200,000 bbl on the week to 97.9 million
bbl, which is 4.7 million bbl lower than last year. Crude imports into the PADD
2 region increased by 308,000 bpd on the week to average 2,962,000 bpd,
according to latest data. This inbound crude oil volume remains 125,000 bpd
higher than the 2,837,000 bpd reported by the agency during the corresponding
week last year.
Refiner use of crude in the Midwest stood at 4.280 million bpd for last
week, versus 4.258 million the week prior and 4.168 million a year ago. The
rate of utilization rose to 100.3% versus the prior week's 99.8% and the
year-ago level of 98.3%.
EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Expand, Rise 15.4% on Year
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (7/8) total
domestic propane/propylene stocks of 90.461 million bbl in the week ending July
3, down 845,000 bbl week-on-week and 12.076 million bbl, or 15.4% higher than
in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 2.616 million bpd, up
709,000 bpd week-on-week and 748,000 bpd, or 40%, higher than in the same week
last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 525,000 bpd,
down 371,000 bpd week-on-week and 43,000 bpd, or 7.6% lower than in the same
week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.924 million bpd,
up 20,000 bpd week-on-week and 127,000 bpd, or 4.5% higher than in the same
week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.537 million bbl, up 287,000
bbl week-on-week and 1.1 million bbl, or 17.1% higher than in the same week
last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 22.067 million bbl, up 648,000 bbl
week-on-week and 2.221 million bbl, or 11.2% higher than in the same week last
year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 56.9 million bbl, down 1.933
million bbl week-on-week and 8.846 million bbl, or 18.4% higher than in the
same week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the
week at 3.958 million bbl, up 153,000 bbl week-on-week and 90,000 bbl, or 2.2%
lower than in the same week last year.
EIA: PADD 1 Distillates Stocks Dip, Jet Up on Higher Runs
Distillate inventories in the U.S. East Coast fell back during the week
ended July 3 after the prior week's rebound, following gasoline stocks lower,
the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (7/8).
Crude oil and jet fuel balances in the PADD 1 region, meanwhile, rose amid
higher refinery utilization, the EIA said, citing its Weekly Petroleum Status
Report.
Distillate inventories on the East Coast fell by 1.7 million bbl to 21.3
million bbl, leaving stocks 2.0 million bbl below year-ago levels. East Coast
distillate imports increased by 7,000 bpd to 67,000 bpd from the previous week
and were above the 24,000 bpd imported during the comparable week of 2025.
Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 1 fell by 1.6 million bbl to 55.6 million
bbl and remained 7.2 million bbl below the 62.8 million bbl recorded a year
earlier. Gasoline imports into the region declined by 95,000 bpd to 292,000 bpd
and were down from 626,000 bpd in the same week last year.
Jet fuel inventories increased by 200,000 bbl to 11.3 million bbl, leaving
stocks 700,000 bbl above the 10.6 million bbl reported during the comparable
week in 2025. East Coast jet fuel imports increased to 19,000 bpd from 13,000
bpd the previous week, compared to zero imports a year earlier.
Crude oil inventories on the East Coast increased by 400,000 bbl to 8.3
million bbl but remained 900,000 bbl below year-ago levels. Crude imports into
the region averaged 338,000 bpd, down from 429,000 bpd the previous week and
below the 676,000 bpd reported during the same week in 2025.
Refinery utilization on the East Coast rose to 78.4% of operable capacity
from 68.3% the previous week, EIA data showed. Crude oil inputs increased by
108,000 bpd to 725,000 bpd during the reference week.
EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Lowest in 9 Months
U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) gasoline inventories dropped to their lowest level
in nine months during the week ended July 3, while distillate fuel inventories
increased, jet fuel stocks edged down and crude oil inventories remained near
five-month lows, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's
Weekly Petroleum Status Report released Wednesday.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 3 region fell by 200,000 bbl to 76.4
million bbl during the reference week, the lowest level since the week ended
Oct. 11, 2024, when stocks stood at 76.2 million bbl. Inventories were 9.4
million bbl below the same week last year. Gasoline imports into the Gulf Coast
averaged 59,000 bpd, down from 73,000 bpd the previous week but above the 2,000
bpd reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Distillate fuel oil inventories, the feedstock for diesel, increased by 1.2
million bbl to 43.9 million bbl during the profiled week. Despite the increase,
inventories remained near historically tight levels and were the lowest for
this time of year since the week ended May 8, when stocks stood at 39 million
bbl. Inventories were 900,000 bbl above the same week last year. As a net
exporter of distillate fuel, PADD 3 reported no distillate imports during the
reporting week.
Jet fuel inventories declined by 200,000 bbl to 16.6 million bbl during the
reference week but remained 1.6 million bbl above the same week last year. As a
net exporter of jet fuel, the Gulf Coast reported no imports of the product
during the reporting week.
Crude oil inventories in PADD 3 fell by 300,000 bbl to 237.2 million bbl,
the lowest level since the week ended Feb. 27, 2026. Inventories were 3.5
million bbl below the same week last year. Crude oil imports into the Gulf
Coast averaged 841,000 bpd, up from 807,000 bpd the previous week but below the
1.395 million bpd reported during the comparable week last year.
Refinery utilization on the Gulf Coast slipped to 96.5% of operable capacity
from 98.1% the previous week, while crude oil inputs into refineries averaged
9.401 million bpd, down from 9.613 million bpd the week before, EIA data showed.
EIA: Crude Stocks Rise After 10-Week Drawdown
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased after declining for 10
consecutive weeks, according to Energy Information Administration data for the
week ended July 3 released Wednesday (7/8). Gasoline and distillate fuel
inventories fell, while jet fuel inventories declined.
Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million bbl to 411.4 million
bbl during the week profiled but remained 14.7 million bbl, or 3.4%, below the
same week last year. Despite the weekly build, commercial crude oil stocks
remained near their lowest seasonal level since the week ended September 28,
2018, when inventories stood at 403.9 million bbl.
Crude oil imports averaged 5.629 million bpd in the profiled week, up by
350,000 bpd from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude imports
averaged 5.403 million bpd, down 11.4% from the same period last year. Crude
oil exports averaged 3.262 million bpd last week, down from 4.008 million bpd
the week prior but above the 2.757 million bpd reported a year earlier.
Distillate fuel inventories fell by 5 million bbl to 103.6 million bbl
during the reference week, the lowest level since the week ended June 12, when
stocks stood at 103.1 million bbl. Despite the decline, inventories remained
800,000 bbl, or 0.8%, above the same week last year. Distillate imports
averaged 87,000 bpd compared with 108,000 bpd the previous week and 42,000 bpd
a year earlier. Distillate exports averaged 1.679 million bpd versus 1.327
million bpd the previous week and 1.585 million bpd during the comparable week
last year.
Total motor gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million bbl to 212.1 million
bbl during the week profiled, the lowest level since the week ended May 22,
when stocks stood at 211.6 million bbl. On an annual basis, gasoline
inventories were down 17.4 million bbl, or 7.6%, from the same week last year.
Gasoline imports averaged 423,000 bpd compared with 639,000 bpd the previous
week and 832,000 bpd a year earlier. Gasoline exports averaged 1.026 million
bpd versus 1.016 million bpd the previous week and 1.043 million bpd during the
comparable week last year.
Jet fuel inventories fell by 400,000 bbl to 47.6 million bbl last week but
remained 3.3 million bbl, or 7.5%, above year-ago levels. Jet fuel imports
averaged 95,000 bpd compared with 61,000 bpd the previous week and 79,000 bpd a
year earlier. Jet fuel exports averaged 295,000 bpd versus 275,000 bpd the
previous week and 246,000 bpd during the comparable week last year.
Refinery utilization slipped to 95.8% of operable capacity last week from
96.6% in the prior week. Crude oil inputs into refineries averaged 17.024
million bpd, down by 172,000 bpd from the previous week's 17.196 million bpd.
Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.618 million
bpd, up 0.3% from the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.991
million bpd, down 2.2% from year-ago levels, while distillate demand averaged
3.778 million bpd, down 0.9% from the previous year. Jet fuel demand averaged
1.869 million bpd, up 4.1% from the same four-week period in 2025.
Trump Ends Ceasefire With Iran Amid New Hormuz Attacks
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday (7/8) that the United States
has ended its ceasefire agreement with Iran after accusing Tehran of reneging
on the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the two countries with attacks
on vessels passing the Strait of Hormuz.
"To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore," Trump
told reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. The
president said negotiators might continue discussions in the interest of peace
between the two sides although he added that he thought that would be "just a
waste of time".
The MoU was signed on June 17, allowing a 60-day ceasefire for the two sides
to negotiate a permanent end to the more than four-month old conflict. The U.S.
decision to nullify it comes on the heels of its cancellation on Tuesday (7/7)
of its temporary waiver of sanctions on the export and sales of Iranian oil.
The U.S. actions came after Iranian attacks reported on vessels in the
Strait of Hormuz in recent days, and after exchange of fire between the U.S.
and Iran on strategic targets. Tehran has said that all commercial vessels
navigating the chokepoint must follow routes it had approved and not take
alternative pathways to the Persian Gulf, warning of attacks on those that
breached its policy.
Iran's parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in a post on X,
accused the U.S. instead of violating the MoU. "We don't fold," Ghalibaf said,
referring to Iranian policy.
The Strait of Hormuz saw a rapid recovery in tanker traffic over the past
two weeks after the signing of the MoU, compared with the virtual standstill on
the waterway for more than three months as both Iran and the U.S. enforced
blockades on the chokepoint. One of the world's busiest sea lanes for energy
shipments, the strait handled the transit of some 20 million bpd of petroleum
liquids.
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