EIA: STEO Eyes Brent at $95 bbl, WTI $85.33 bbl in 2026


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has pared 
slightly its Brent and WTI price outlook for 2026 due to the likelihood of 
higher OPEC production, the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for May, 
released Tuesday (5/12), showed.

   The EIA forecasts the 2026 average for Brent at $95 bbl versus the $95.67 
bbl expectation it had in its April STEO. In 2025, Brent averaged $69 bbl.

   For WTI, the EIA's projection for 2026 was at $ 85.33 bbl, versus its $87.08 
expectation in April.

   "We now expect OPEC's spare capacity to average 2.5 million b/d in 2027, 
compared with our previous forecast of 3.8 million b/d," the EIA said in the 
May STEO report. "As oil production in the Middle East rises, we expect crude 
oil prices to fall."

   The EIA said it arrived at the May STEO numbers after incorporating the 
UAE's departure from OPEC and by excluding their production data from all 
historical and forecast periods within the current outlook.

   OPEC's spare crude oil capacity is now expected to average 2.5 million bpd 
in 2027, down from previous forecasts of 3.8 million bpd following the move, 
the agency added.




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