EIA: STEO Eyes Brent at Above $78 bbl, WTI $73 bbl in 2026


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration reviewed its 
2026 forecast for Brent crude to an average $78.84 bbl, compared to $69.04 bbl 
recorded in the previous year, according to its monthly Short-Term Energy 
Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday (3/10).

   That was sharply higher than the 2026 average of $58 bbl that the EIA 
predicted for Brent in the short-term outlook issued a month earlier. Oil 
markets are expected to surge this year due to the war in Iran, the EIA said.

   "Crude oil prices have risen as petroleum shipments through the Strait of 
Hormuz have fallen, and some Middle East oil production has been shut in," said 
the latest STEO report, which noted that Brent had settled at around $94 bbl on 
March 9. In Tuesday's trading, the front-month contract in ICE Brent hovered at 
$83 bbl.

   The agency said its modeling assumes that the effective closure of the 
Hormuz -- where some 21 million bpd in petroleum liquids pass -- will cause oil 
production in the Middle East to fall further in the coming weeks. Shut-in 
production will, however, gradually ease as transit resumes through the strait, 
it added.

   As such, the EIA expects a significant price moderation in Brent by 2027, 
forecasting the global crude benchmark to decline to $64.47 bbl.

   On the U.S. front, West Texas Intermediate crude is forecast to average 
$73.61 bbl this year and $60.81 bbl in 2027, versus last year's $65.40 bbl. In 
February's STEO report, the EIA predicted the U.S. crude benchmark to average 
$53 through 2026.

   The agency also forecasts retail gasoline to average $3.34 gallon this year, 
versus last year's $3.10, indicating that some of the upside pressure in WTI 
pricing will likely pass downstream. For 2027, the EIA's average forecast for 
gasoline is $3.18 gallon.

   Natural gas prices will likely follow a similar trajectory, according to the 
EIA, which predicts $3.76 mmBtu this year versus $3.53 last year. For next 
year, gas is expected to reach $3.85 mmBtu.

   U.S. crude oil production is expected to average at 13.6 million bpd this 
year, matching the 2025 record, before rising to 13.8 million bpd in 2027.




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