MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News Sept 15:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Group 3 ULSD Basis Gains 7cts as Midwest Distillates Firm
-- Chicago CBOB Basis DN 17cts Amid PADD 2 Gasoline Builds
-- Fed Adds 25 Basis Point in 1st U.S. Rate Hike Since 2023
-- EIA: SPR Crude Falls to 285M bbl, Lowest Since 1982
-- EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Hit 7-Week Highs
-- EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Rise After Four-Week Drop
-- EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Hit 3-Week Lows
-- EIA: PADD 3 Jet Fuel Stocks Fall to 5-Month Low
-- EIA: Gulf Coast Ethanol Stocks Expand, Up 51% YoY
-- EIA: Distillate Stocks Rise for Third Straight Week
-- EIA: Propane/Propylene Exports Jump, Stocks Edge Lower
-- U.S. Rack Prices Continue Uptrend; ULSD Jumps 26.26cts
NEWS
Group 3 ULSD Basis Gains 7cts as Midwest Distillates Firm
Midwest physical distillate markets showed modest strength Wednesday (9/16),
led by gains in Group 3 ULSD basis, even as inventory data showed fuel
stockpiles expanding across the region.
The differential for Group 3 ULSD advanced 7cts on the day to stand at a 1ct
gallon discount to the October NYMEX ULSD contract.
Across regional pipeline distribution networks, ULSD differentials traded
mixed to lower. Chicago ULSD basis slipped 4cts to an 11cts gallon premium
against October futures, while Buckeye Complex ULSD fell 5cts to a 10cts
premium. Wolverine ULSD basis held unchanged at a 15cts gallon premium.
In aviation fuels, Group 3 jet fuel basis rose 5cts to stand at a 90cts
gallon discount to October ULSD futures, while Chicago jet fuel basis held flat
at an 80cts gallon discount.
The physical movements unfolded alongside building regional inventories.
Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday showed PADD 2
distillate fuel oil stocks rose 300,000 bbl during the week ended Sept. 11 to
28.8 million bbl, while jet fuel inventories also grew 300,000 bbl to 28.8
million bbl. Regional refinery crude utilization slipped 2.6 percentage points
on the week to 99.0%.
Underlying futures eased slightly, with October NYMEX ULSD settling down
2.24cts, or 0.57%, at $5.2396 gallon after touching a low of $5.1227 gallon.
Chicago CBOB Basis DN 17cts Amid PADD 2 Gasoline Builds
Midwest physical CBOB markets turned lower Wednesday (9/16), weighed by a
drop in the Chicago basis, after federal data revealed regional gasoline
inventories at a seven-week high.
Chicago CBOB basis fell 17cts on the day to stand at a 19cts gallon premium
against the October NYMEX RBOB contract.
Eastern pipeline networks mirrored the downward pressure, with Buckeye
Complex CBOB basis dropping 11cts to a 25cts gallon premium against October
futures, while Wolverine CBOB basis fell 6cts to stand at a 30cts premium.
In Midcontinent trading, Group 3 CBOB basis weakened by 5cts to an 8.5cts
gallon premium against the benchmark.
The physical weakness aligned with building regional supply buffers. EIA
data showed PADD 2 motor gasoline inventories rose 900,000 bbl during the week
ended Sept. 11 to 44.1 million bbl -- the highest level since late July --
despite regional refiner crude processing dropping to 4.241 million bpd.
Physical market losses came despite modest gains in underlying futures,
where October NYMEX RBOB advanced 1.92cts, or 0.55%, to finish at $3.4844
gallon after rebounding from a session low of $3.3891 gallon.
Chicago CBOB Basis DN 17cts Amid PADD 2 Gasoline Builds
Midwest physical CBOB markets turned lower Wednesday (9/16), weighed by a
drop in the Chicago basis, after federal data revealed regional gasoline
inventories at a seven-week high.
Chicago CBOB basis fell 17cts on the day to stand at a 19cts gallon premium
against the October NYMEX RBOB contract.
Eastern pipeline networks mirrored the downward pressure, with Buckeye
Complex CBOB basis dropping 11cts to a 25cts gallon premium against October
futures, while Wolverine CBOB basis fell 6cts to stand at a 30cts premium.
In Midcontinent trading, Group 3 CBOB basis weakened by 5cts to an 8.5cts
gallon premium against the benchmark.
The physical weakness aligned with building regional supply buffers. EIA
data showed PADD 2 motor gasoline inventories rose 900,000 bbl during the week
ended Sept. 11 to 44.1 million bbl -- the highest level since late July --
despite regional refiner crude processing dropping to 4.241 million bpd.
Physical market losses came despite modest gains in underlying futures,
where October NYMEX RBOB advanced 1.92cts, or 0.55%, to finish at $3.4844
gallon after rebounding from a session low of $3.3891 gallon.
Fed Adds 25 Basis Point in 1st U.S. Rate Hike Since 2023
The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday (9/16) that it has raised U.S.
interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing key U.S. lending rates to a range
of between 3.75% and 4%.
It was the first monetary tightening in three years by the central bank,
with analysts expecting it to hike rates further in the near term as it tries
to combat rising inflation. The Fed's next rate decision will be in December.
"The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate
by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal
Reserve's dual mandate," the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee said in a
statement, referring to its objective of keeping rates sustainable while
maximizing employment.
Crude oil and fuel products' futures were down broadly in Wednesday's
trading as energy markets responded to a paring of supply risks in the Middle
East. The Fed rate hike also weighed as businesses expected higher capital
costs in the near term, analysts said.
By 2:04 p.m. ET, NYMEX WTI crude for October delivery fell $3.64, or 3.40%,
to $102.19 bbl for its sharpest one-day drop in three weeks. The session low
for WTI was $100.97.
ICE Brent for November delivery moved down $3.27, or 3.03%, to $105.48 bbl.
It reached a low of $104.00 earlier in the day.
Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for October delivery eased $0.0638, or 0.98%, to
$5.1982 gallon. It bottomed at $5.1227 during the session.
RBOB for October retreated $0.0051, or 0.16%, to $3.4601 gallon. The low for
the day was $3.3891.
The U.S. dollar index gained 0.094 points to 99.435 against a basket of
currencies.
EIA: SPR Crude Falls to 285M bbl, Lowest Since 1982
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil inventories declined further
during the week ended September 11, falling to 285 million bbl and marking the
lowest level in nearly 44 years, according to Energy Information Administration
data released Wednesday (9/16).
SPR inventories fell by 400,000 bbl from 285.4 million bbl the previous
week. The latest level was the lowest since the week ended November 5, 1982,
when the reserve held 284.9 million bbl. By the following week, ended November
12, 1982, inventories had increased to 286.198 million bbl, EIA historical data
showed.
Inventories were 120.8 million bbl, or 29.8%, below the 405.7 million bbl
reported during the comparable week of 2025.
The latest draw comes as crude deliveries from the reserve continue under an
emergency exchange program launched earlier this year. The United States
committed about 172 million bbl of SPR crude as its contribution to a
coordinated 400 million bbl emergency stock release by International Energy
Agency member countries.
Unlike an outright sale, barrels released through the exchange are expected
to be returned to the SPR. Companies receiving the crude are required to
replace the borrowed volumes and provide additional barrels as a premium under
the terms of the exchange, allowing the reserve to receive more crude than was
initially delivered.
EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Hit 7-Week Highs
Midwest gasoline stocks hit seven-week highs as fuel inventories in the
region rose across the board last week, while crude oil balances fell, the
Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (9/16).
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 2 region rose by 900,000 bbl during
the week ended September 11 to stand at 44.1 million bbl, according to the
EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report. That was the highest for Midwest gasoline
stocks since the week ended July 24, when they stood at 44.33 million bbl.
Year-on-year, regional gasoline stocks were lower by 2.0 million bbl
compared to the 46.1 million bbl seen in the corresponding week of 2025.
Weekly imports of gasoline into the Midwest surged by 17,000 bpd on the week
to average 18,000 bpd during the current reporting period. This inbound volume
was up by 5,000 bpd from the year-ago level of 13,000 bpd recorded during the
same week last year.
PADD 2 distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 300,000 bbl on the week
to 28.8 million bbl, reversing the prior week's draw. The latest weekly build
placed regional inventories of the product 1.8 million bbl lower than the 30.6
million bbl logged during the corresponding week last year.
Distillate imports into the Midwest averaged 2,000 bpd, down 1,000 bpd on
the week and down by 5,000 bpd from the year-ago volume of 7,000 bpd.
Jet fuel stocks rose by 300,000 bbl from the prior week to 28.8 million bbl,
though remaining 1.8 million bbl below the previous year's level of 30.6
million bbl. Weekly jet fuel imports remained flat at zero bpd, matching both
week-ago and year-ago levels.
Crude oil inventories decreased by 400,000 bbl on the week to 99.7 million
bbl, which is 3.3 million bbl lower than last year's level of 103.0 million bbl.
PADD 2 crude imports increased by 362,000 bpd on the week to average
3,032,000 bpd, according to latest EIA data. This inbound crude oil volume was
372,000 bpd higher than the 2,660,000 bpd reported by the agency during the
corresponding week last year.
Refiner use of crude in the Midwest fell to 4.241 million bpd last week,
versus 4.349 million the week prior and 3.957 million a year ago. The regional
utilization rate slipped to 99.0% versus the prior week's 101.6% but remained
well above the year-ago level of 93.1%.
EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Rise After Four-Week Drop
U.S. West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline inventories increased during the week
ended September 11, ending four consecutive weekly declines, while crude oil
stocks also rose and distillate and jet fuel inventories fell, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration reported Wednesday (9/16).
Motor gasoline stocks in the PADD 5 region increased by 300,000 bbl to 27.4
million bbl during the referenced week, following the previous week's 100,000
bbl decline. Inventories remained 2.6 million bbl below the 30 million bbl
reported during the same week last year. Motor gasoline imports fell to 61,000
bpd from 120,000 bpd the previous week and were below the 102,000 bpd reported
during the comparable week of 2025.
Regional distillate fuel stockpiles fell by 300,000 bbl to 9.8 million bbl
from the previous week and remained below the 11.7 million bbl reported during
the same week last year. Distillate imports into PADD 5 fell to 13,000 bpd from
21,000 bpd the previous week and were below the 31,000 bpd reported during the
comparable week of 2025.
Jet fuel stocks in PADD 5 fell by 300,000 bbl to 10.9 million bbl during the
reference week from 11.2 million bbl the previous week and were below the 11.7
million bbl reported during the same week last year. Jet fuel imports into PADD
5 fell to 40,000 bpd from 75,000 bpd the previous week and were below the
91,000 bpd imported during the comparable week of 2025.
Crude oil inventories in PADD 5 increased by 1 million bbl to 46 million bbl
during the reference week, reversing the previous week's 2.7 million bbl
decline. Inventories were 1 million bbl above the 45 million bbl reported
during the same week last year. Crude oil imports into the West Coast fell to
994,000 bpd from 1.024 million bpd the previous week but were above the 867,000
bpd reported during the comparable week of 2025.
West Coast refinery utilization increased to 94.9% of operable capacity from
93.2% the previous week, while crude oil inputs into regional refineries
declined to 2.053 million bpd from 2.072 million bpd the week before, EIA data
showed.
EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Hit 3-Week Lows
U.S. East Coast gasoline stocks hit three-week lows last week as distillate
fuel oil and crude oil inventories also fell, while jet fuel balances rose, the
Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (9/16).
The broad slide in PADD 1 energy inventories came as refinery runs and crude
inputs in the PADD 1 region increased during the week ended September 11, the
EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed.
Gasoline stocks dropped by 700,000 bbl to 52.31 million bbl during the
reference week and stood 2.3 million bbl below the 54.6 million bbl logged
during the corresponding week last year. That was the lowest for East Coast
gasoline stocks since the week ended August 21, when they stood at 52.25
million bbl.
Gasoline imports into the region rose to 419,000 bpd from 320,000 bpd the
previous week and were above the 346,000 bpd reported during the comparable
week of 2025.
Distillate inventories edged down by 100,000 bbl to 21.6 million bbl,
remaining well below the 31.3 million bbl recorded during the same week of
2025. Distillate imports into the region fell to 76,000 bpd from 149,000 bpd
the previous week, though remaining above the 60,000 bpd brought in a year ago.
Jet fuel inventories increased by 500,000 bbl during the reference week to
11.2 million bbl, standing 600,000 bbl above the 10.6 million bbl reported a
year ago. East Coast jet fuel imports dropped to zero bpd from 19,000 bpd the
previous week, matching the zero bpd imported during the comparable week of
last year.
Crude oil inventories fell by 200,000 bbl to 8.2 million bbl during the week
profiled, while standing 800,000 bbl above the 7.4 million bbl reported during
the same week last year. Crude imports into the region averaged 649,000 bpd,
down from 707,000 bpd the previous week and slightly below the 651,000 bpd
reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Refinery crude oil inputs grew by 14,000 bpd to 803,000 bpd from 789,000 bpd
the previous week, surpassing the 726,000 bpd recorded a year ago. Refinery
utilization rose to 87.7% from 85.3% in the prior week and 84.7% in the
year-ago period.
EIA: PADD 3 Jet Fuel Stocks Fall to 5-Month Low
U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) jet fuel inventories fell to a five-month low
during the week ended September 11, giving back the previous week's rebound,
while distillate and gasoline stocks increased and crude oil inventories
declined as refinery utilization fell, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report released Wednesday (9/16).
Jet fuel inventories fell by 1.5 million bbl to 14.1 million bbl during the
reference week from 15.6 million bbl the previous week. The latest level was
the lowest since the week ended April 10, when stocks stood at 13.9 million
bbl. Inventories remained 1.1 million bbl above the 13 million bbl reported
during the same week last year. The Gulf Coast reported no jet fuel imports
during the reporting week.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 3 region increased by 300,000 bbl to
77.6 million bbl during the reference week, following the previous week's 1.1
million bbl build. Inventories remained 2.6 million bbl below the 80.2 million
bbl reported during the same week last year. Gasoline imports into the Gulf
Coast averaged 38,000 bpd, up from 8,000 bpd the previous week but below the
45,000 bpd reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Distillate fuel oil inventories, the feedstock for diesel, increased by 1.3
million bbl to 43.8 million bbl during the profiled week, reversing the
previous week's 200,000 bbl decline. Inventories remained 3.2 million bbl below
the 47 million bbl reported during the same week last year. As a net exporter
of distillate fuel, PADD 3 reported no distillate imports during the reporting
week.
Crude oil inventories in PADD 3 fell by 1.3 million bbl to 246.2 million bbl
during the reference week, reversing the previous week's 2.4 million bbl build.
Inventories were 8.8 million bbl above the 237.4 million bbl reported during
the same week last year. Crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast averaged 1.861
million bpd, down from 1.993 million bpd the previous week but above the 1.190
million bpd reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Refinery utilization on the Gulf Coast fell to 96.9% of operable capacity
from 98.3% the previous week, while crude oil inputs into refineries declined
to 9.622 million bpd from 9.730 million bpd the week before, EIA data showed.
EIA: Gulf Coast Ethanol Stocks Expand, Up 51% YoY
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that overall
ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.099 million bpd in the week
ending September 11, unchanged from last week and 44,000 bpd, or 4.2% higher
than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.105 million bpd
was 29,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.04 million bpd, up 2,000 bpd
week-on-week and 43,000 bpd, or 4.3% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average output at 1.048 million bpd was 28,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 911,000 bpd, up 3,000 bpd
week-on-week and 11,000 bpd, or 1.2% lower than in the same week last year.
Four-week average blending demand at 921,000 bpd was 9,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 1,000 bpd on the week while
inputs in the Midwest were down 4,000 bpd, up 14,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and
down 5,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 25.22 million bbl, up 33,000
bbl week-on-week and 2.618 million bbl, or 11.6% higher than in the same week
last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.675 million bbl, down
9,000 bbl week-on-week and 821,000 bbl, or 12% higher than in the same week
last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 9.743 million bbl, down 79,000
bbl week-on-week and 402,000 bbl, or 4.3% higher than in the same week last
year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 5.289 million bbl, up
117,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.785 million bbl, or 50.9% higher than in the
same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.19 million bbl, up 10,000
bbl week-on-week and 341,000 bbl, or 13.5% lower than in the same week last
year.
EIA: Distillate Stocks Rise for Third Straight Week
U.S. distillate fuel inventories increased for a third consecutive week
during the week ended September 11, while gasoline stocks also built and jet
fuel and commercial crude oil inventories fell as refinery utilization remained
high, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday
(9/16).
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million bbl to 107.9 million
bbl during the profiled week, following the previous week's 2.1 million bbl
build. Inventories remained 16.8 million bbl, or 13.5%, below the 124.7 million
bbl reported during the same week last year. Distillate imports averaged
114,000 bpd compared with 185,000 bpd the previous week and 95,000 bpd during
the comparable week last year. Distillate exports increased to 1.614 million
bpd from 1.556 million bpd the previous week and were well above the 851,000
bpd reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 600,000 bbl to 423.4 million bbl
during the profiled week and were 8.1 million bbl, or 1.9%, above the 415.4
million bbl reported during the same week last year. Crude oil imports averaged
7.058 million bpd, up from 6.824 million bpd the previous week and 5.692
million bpd during the comparable week of 2025. Crude oil exports increased to
4.831 million bpd from 3.417 million bpd the previous week but remained below
the 5.277 million bpd reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 bbl to 207.7 million
bbl during the reference week, following the previous week's 1.3 million bbl
build. Inventories remained 9.9 million bbl, or 4.6%, below the 217.6 million
bbl reported during the same week last year. Gasoline imports averaged 537,000
bpd compared with 464,000 bpd the previous week and 569,000 bpd during the
comparable week last year. Gasoline exports increased to 955,000 bpd from
872,000 bpd the previous week but remained below the 972,000 bpd reported
during the comparable week of 2025.
Jet fuel inventories fell by 700,000 bbl to 45.3 million bbl during the
reference week but remained 1.4 million bbl, or 3.3%, above the 43.9 million
bbl reported during the same week last year. Jet fuel imports averaged 55,000
bpd compared with 95,000 bpd the previous week and 54,000 bpd during the
comparable week last year. Jet fuel exports fell to 229,000 bpd from 309,000
bpd the previous week and 238,000 bpd during the comparable week of 2025.
Refinery utilization fell to 96.8% of operable capacity from 97.8% the
previous week, while crude oil inputs into refineries declined to 17.330
million bpd from 17.586 million bpd the week before, EIA data showed.
EIA: Propane/Propylene Exports Jump, Stocks Edge Lower
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (9/16) total
domestic propane/propylene stocks of 109.092 million bbl in the week ending
September 11, down 1.378 million bbl week-on-week and 10.161 million bbl, or
10.3% higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 2.213 million bpd, up
253,000 bpd week-on-week and 241,000 bpd, or 12.2%, higher than in the same
week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.038
million bpd, up 381,000 bpd week-on-week and 186,000 bpd, or 21.8% higher than
in the same week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.973 million
bpd, up 20,000 bpd week-on-week and 87,000 bpd, or 3% higher than in the same
week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.734 million bbl, down
781,000 bbl week-on-week and 899,000 bbl, or 10.4% lower than in the same week
last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 26.259 million bbl, down
303,000 bbl week-on-week and 204,000 bbl, or 0.8% higher than in the same week
last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 69.626 million bbl, down
570,000 bbl week-on-week and 10.564 million bbl, or 17.9% higher than in the
same week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended
the week at 5.473 million bbl, up 277,000 bbl week-on-week and 292,000 bbl, or
5.6% higher than in the same week last year.
U.S. Rack Prices Continue Uptrend; ULSD Jumps 26.26cts
U.S. wholesale rack prices continued their uptrend Wednesday (9/16), with
ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) and gasoline rising across all five PADDs even
as crude oil futures fell amid reports Saudi Arabia had found a temporary
alternative route for some exports.
Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $5.5803 gallon, up 26.26cts from the
previous trading session's $5.3177 gallon, according to DTN data.
Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.6054 gallon, up
13.48cts from Tuesday's $3.4706 gallon.
The rise in rack prices contrasted with softer crude futures Wednesday as
Saudi Aramco reportedly used ship-to-ship transfers at Oman's Sohar port to
supply Asian buyers, partially offsetting disruptions following damage to Saudi
Arabia's East-West pipeline. WTI fell to around $103.75 bbl after reaching a
session high of $105.63 bbl.
Product markets remained comparatively firm, particularly in distillates.
Front-month NYMEX ULSD traded near $5.27 gallon after reaching $5.2968 earlier
in the day, while RBOB gasoline fell to around $3.43 gallon. Refining margins
continued to favor diesel, with the diesel crack trading above $116 bbl, up
$1.25 on the day, compared with a gasoline crack above $40 bbl.
ULSD racks increased across all five regions. Midwest values posted the
largest advance, rising 34.84cts to $5.5594 gallon, followed by Gulf Coast
prices, which jumped 30.83cts to $5.4290 gallon. Rocky Mountain ULSD increased
25.89cts to $5.6002 gallon, West Coast values rose 25.18cts to $6.1370 gallon
and East Coast prices advanced 16.57cts to $5.4189 gallon. PADD 5 maintained
the widest premium to the national average at 55.67cts, while PADD 1 held the
largest discount at 16.14cts.
Gasoline racks also rose across all five PADDs. Gulf Coast values posted the
largest increase, climbing 14.83cts to $3.4231 gallon, followed closely by East
Coast prices, which rose 14.69cts to $3.4344 gallon. Midwest gasoline advanced
13.31cts to $3.4733 gallon, West Coast values increased 10.63cts to $4.2448
gallon and Rocky Mountain prices rose 9.72cts to $4.1181 gallon.
PADD 5 maintained the largest gasoline premium to the national average at
63.94cts, while PADD 3 held the widest discount at 18.23cts.
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