BEA: US Q4 GDP Growth at 0.5% vs 0.7% Estimate


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% in 
the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) 
third and final estimate on Thursday (4/9) that missed market expectations.

   This final revision is down from the 0.7% reported in the second estimate 
and marks a significant drop from the 4.4% growth recorded in the third 
quarter. Market expectation was a 0.7% growth.

   The BEA noted that the 0.2 percentage point downward revision primarily 
reflected lower-than-expected business investment. The 43-day federal 
government shutdown earlier in the quarter remained a primary factor behind the 
tepid growth rate.

   While consumer spending and business investment continued to expand during 
the period, these gains were largely offset by a decline in exports and drop in 
government spending. For the full year 2025, real GDP increased 2.1%. This 
figure was unchanged from the second estimate but remains lower than the 3.0% 
annual growth seen in 2024. The PCE price index rose 2.9% year-on-year in the 
fourth quarter, matching the previous estimate. Core PCE, which excludes 
volatile food and energy costs, held steady at 2.7% growth.

   The U.S. dollar index showed minimal volatility following the release of the 
GDP data, trading 0.270 points lower to 98.655.




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