MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Miguel E. Andujar
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News July 29th:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Midwest Jet Fuel Basis Mixed Amid Weekly Stock Draw
-- USGC ULSD Basis Hit 1-Mo High, Despite Ample Stocks
-- Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged 5th Time in Row Amid Inflation
-- EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Climb for 3rd Wk, Jet Fuel Dips
-- U.S.-Canada 2025 Energy Trade DN 11% on Lower Oil Prices
-- EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Up; Jet, Distillates Draw
-- Analysis: EIA Sees Crude Demand Soar to Six-Year High
-- EIA: PADD 1 Jet Fuel Stocks Up; Gasoline, Distillates DN
-- EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Rse for Second-Straight Week
-- EIA: Crude Stocks Tumble; Gasoline Flat Near 8-Month Low
-- EIA: Ethanol Stocks Edge Higher, Production Up 3.4% YoY
-- EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Rise 2.5%, Up 22.5% YoY
NEWS
Midwest Jet Fuel Basis Mixed Amid Weekly Stock Draw
Midwest spot jet fuel cash market was mixed Wednesday, with Chicago basis
strengthening modestly, while Group 3 values fell sharply, even as Energy
Information Administration (EIA) data showed a weekly decline in jet fuel
inventories.
Chicago jet fuel basis strengthened by 2cts to a 38cts discount to September
NYMEX ULSD futures, extending Tuesday's 15cts gain. In contrast, Group 3 jet
fuel was talked at a 75cts discount to September ULSD, weakening 16cts on the
day.
EIA data released Wednesday showed regional jet fuel inventories fell by
600,000 bbl to 7.3 million bbl during the week ended July 24, while remaining
300,000 bbl above year-ago levels.
PADD 2 distillate fuel oil inventories fell by 400,000 bbl to 28.2 million
bbl. That weekly draw placed regional distillate inventories 2.3 million bbl
higher than the 25.9 million bbl logged during the corresponding week last year.
Refiner use of crude in the Midwest stood at 4.336 million bpd last week,
compared to 4.280 million bpd the week prior and 4.133 million bpd a year ago.
Regional refinery utilization rose to 101.4% versus the prior week's 100.3% and
remained well above the year-ago level of 97.3%.
USGC ULSD Basis Hit 1-Mo High, Despite Ample Stocks
Basis for ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel (ULSD) strengthened on Wednesday
(7/29), climbing to its highest level in a month despite a weekly build in U.S.
distillate inventories last week.
USGC ULSD basis was assessed at a 0.85cts premium to August New York Harbor
ULSD futures, compared with a discount of 0.5cts a day earlier, according to
DTN data.
The assessment marked the strongest USGC ULSD basis relative to the New York
Harbor benchmark since June 30, when it was assessed at a 1.0cts premium.
U.S. Gulf Coast cash market bids for ULSD were heard at 0.50cts premium,
while offers were indicated at 1.0cts premium, according to market sources.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that distillate
fuel oil inventories, the feedstock for diesel, rose by 2.6
million bbl to 45.7 million bbl during the week ended July 24. However, they
remained 400,000 bbl below the 46.1 million bbl reported during the same week
last year.
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged 5th Time in Row Amid Inflation
The Federal Reserve said Wednesday (7/29) it left U.S. interest rates
unchanged at 3.50-3.75% following a two-day meeting as policymakers continued
to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on rising U.S. inflationary
pressures.
Wednesday's decision marks the fifth consecutive rate hold for the central
bank since the start of 2026, and the second under Chair Kevin Warsh, who
succeeded Jerome Powell in May.
EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Climb for 3rd Wk, Jet Fuel Dips
U.S. West Coast gasoline stockpiles rose for a third consecutive week,
alongside a build on distillates and a draw on jet fuel stocks during the week
ended July 24, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data
reported on Wednesday (7/29).
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 5 region climbed by 100,000 bbl to
28.7 million bbl during the week ended July 24, the EIA data showed.
Year-on-year, gasoline stocks declined for a second straight week by 2.2
million bbl. PADD 5 gasoline imports continued their declining trend, dropping
by 39,000 bpd to 99,000 bpd last week and were 77,000 bpd lower compared with
the same week a year earlier.
PADD 5 distillate fuel stockpiles rose by 500,000 bbl to 11.3 million bbl.
They also remained unchanged from the volume reported a year ago. Distillate
imports in the same region declined by 35,000 bpd to 13,000 bpd and dropped
30,000 bpd compared with the same week last year.
In contrast, jet fuel stocks in the same region declined for a second
straight week by 100,000 bbl to 11.5 million bbl and were flat compared to the
same period last year. Jet fuel imports in PADD 5 plummeted by 70,000 bpd to
36,000 bpd last week. Year-over-year, jet fuel imports fell 9,000 bpd.
Crude oil inventories in PADD 5 rose 200,000 bbl to 45 million bbl during
the profiled week. They were 2.9 million bbl below the volume reported for the
same week last year. Crude imports increased for a second straight week by
53,000 bpd to 1.03 million bpd and were 379,000 bpd below the same week a year
earlier.
U.S.-Canada 2025 Energy Trade DN 11% on Lower Oil Prices
Lower crude oil prices and reduced trade volumes pushed the value of
U.S.-Canada energy trade down 11% in 2025 to $137 billion, an analysis
published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday (7/29)
showed.
The contraction was primarily driven by weaker crude oil prices, with Brent
averaging $69/bbl in 2025, down $11/bbl from 2024.
Total crude oil trade value fell 16% year-on-year to $94.7 billion,
accounting for 69% of overall cross-border energy trade.
U.S. energy imports from Canada comprised $111 billion of the total trade
value, while U.S. energy exports to Canada totaled $26 billion last year. U.S.
crude oil imports from Canada averaged 3.9 million bpd in 2025, marking a 4%
drop compared with 2024 levels.
The decline in crude import volumes was partly due to increased utilization
of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, which routes Canadian crude to the
Pacific Coast for export to Asian markets. Meanwhile, U.S. crude exports to
Canada averaged 383,000 bpd in 2025, down 2% from the previous year.
Cross-border trade in refined petroleum products grew 2% by volume in 2025,
but total value dropped 4% as lower crude prices weighed on fuel costs. U.S.
petroleum product imports from Canada slid 2% to 583,000 bpd, while U.S.
exports to Canada rose 6% to 504,000 bpd.
EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Up; Jet, Distillates Draw
Midwest gasoline inventories rose last week, while stocks of crude oil,
distillates and jet fuel drew, the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
reported Wednesday (7/29).
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 2 region built by 800,000 bbl during
the week ended July 24 to stand at 44.3 million bbl, according to the EIA's
Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Year-on-year, Midwest gasoline stocks fell by
1.8 million bbl from the 46.1 million bbl recorded during the corresponding
week of 2025.
Weekly imports of gasoline fell by 2,000 bpd on the week to average 11,000
bpd during the current reporting period. This inbound volume fell by 4,000 bpd
from the year-ago level of 15,000 bpd recorded during the same week last year.
PADD 2 distillate fuel oil inventories fell by 400,000 bbl on the week to
28.2 million bbl. That weekly draw placed regional distillate inventories 2.3
million bbl higher than the 25.9 million bbl logged during the corresponding
week last year.
Distillate imports into the Midwest averaged 3,000 bpd, down by 11,000 bpd
on the week and down by 3,000 bpd from the prior year. This inbound volume
compared to 6,000 bpd imported during the corresponding week last year.
Jet fuel stocks fell by 600,000 bbl from the prior week to 7.3 million bbl,
standing 300,000 bbl above the previous year's level.
Crude oil inventories decreased by 200,000 bbl on the week to 96.9 million
bbl, which is 6.7 million bbl lower than last year's level. Crude imports into
the PADD 2 region increased by 4,000 bpd on the week to average 2,595,000 bpd,
according to latest EIA data.
This inbound crude oil volume was 283,000 bpd lower than the 2,878,000 bpd
reported by the agency during the corresponding week last year.
Refiner use of crude in the Midwest stood at 4.336 million bpd last week,
versus 4.280 million the week prior and 4.133 million a year ago. The regional
utilization rate rose to 101.4% versus the prior week's 100.3% and remained
above the year-ago level of 97.3%.
Analysis: EIA Sees Crude Demand Soar to Six-Year High
Net inputs of crude oil at domestic refineries last week soared to their
highest since 2019, U.S. Energy Information Administration data published
Wednesday (7/29) showed. Record-high crack spreads had refiners run near
maximum capacity, with the average crude processing rate jumping 271,000 bpd to
17.34 million bpd in the week ended July 24.
The growing disparity between a tightening global fuels market and
better-supplied crude market propelled product cracks past their previous
record highs reached in the early months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in
2022. At market close on Tuesday, the 3:2:1 crack spread vs WTI hit an all-time
high $72.22 bbl.
Refiners in the U.S. have against the backdrop of extremely high margins for
months operated above typical seasonal norms. Over the past four weeks, they
utilized 96.3% of operable capacity, compared to 94.9% in the same period in
2025. Net crude oil inputs averaged 17.14 million bpd, up 212,000 bpd
year-on-year, despite a 110,000 bpd drop in capacity.
U.S. refiners have during the ongoing Hormuz crisis become a swing supplier
of refined fuels to the global market. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports
have over the past months set new record highs. In contrast to their Asian
counterparts, who were forced to slash runs by millions of bpd amid the sudden
loss of their primary crude oil source, U.S. refiners were able to operate
unhindered.
Months of low global fuels production have considerably tightened the global
market, as the supply-side impact of the Hormuz crisis was much more pronounced
than the price-induced dip in refined fuels demand. Mounting war-induced
refinery outages from the Middle East to Russia have worsened the supply
tightness, catapulting refining margins to record highs.
Domestic commercial crude oil inventories have between mid-April and late
June dwindled rapidly amid sky-high exports, falling to their seasonally lowest
in more than a decade. Now, the added pressure of soaring domestic demand, all
while exports are still running more than 500,000 bpd above year-ago levels, is
set to draw down stockpiles even more. The newest EIA data indicated commercial
inventories fell 7.2 million bbl last week to 404.5 million bbl, down 5.2%
year-on-year and 6.6% below the five-year seasonal average.
The release of by now nearly 108 million bbl from the Strategic Petroleum
reserve has since late March feathered what would have been an even steeper
decline in inventories. Two thirds of this cushion are now gone, and another
release on top of the originally planned 172 million bbl is unlikely, given
that volumes in the SPR, currently at 307.7 million bbl, are already
approaching minimum operational levels -- with 64 million bbl still to go.
EIA: PADD 1 Jet Fuel Stocks Up; Gasoline, Distillates DN
Jet fuel inventories on the U.S. East Coast rose during the week ended July
24, while stocks of crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuel all fell, the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (7/29).
Jet fuel balances increased by 1.4 million bbl to 12.7 million bbl, leaving
stocks 1.8 million bbl above the 10.9 million bbl reported during the
comparable week in 2025, the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed.
East Coast jet fuel imports fell to 6,000 bpd from 19,000 bpd the previous
week, compared to 19,000 bpd recorded a year earlier.
Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 1 fell by 200,000 bbl to 52.9 million bbl
and remained 5.0 million bbl below the 57.9 million bbl recorded a year
earlier. Gasoline imports into the region increased by 125,000 bpd to 457,000
bpd but were down from 563,000 bpd reported in the same week last year.
Distillate balances on the East Coast decreased by 1.8 million bbl to 22.1
million bbl, leaving regional levels of the product 4.4 million bbl below
comparable year-ago levels. East Coast distillate imports decreased by 25,000
bpd to 72,000 bpd from the previous week and were down from 173,000 bpd
imported during the same week of 2025.
Crude oil inventories on the East Coast fell by 700,000 bbl to 7.1 million
bbl and remained 1.2 million bbl below their comparable year-ago levels. Crude
imports into PADD 1 averaged 536,000 bpd, up from 496,000 bpd the previous week
but below the 798,000 bpd reported during the same week of 2025.
Refinery utilization on the East Coast slipped to 86.7% of operable capacity
from 86.9% the previous week but was above 82.9% in the prior year. Crude oil
inputs decreased by 9,000 bpd to 795,000 bpd during the reference week,
compared to the 731,000 bpd recorded during the same week last year.
EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Rse for Second-Straight Week
U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) gasoline inventories rose for a second consecutive
week in the week ended July 24, while jet fuel stockpiles extended their
decline to a second straight week.Distillate inventories also decreased in the
same period, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released
Wednesday (7/29).
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 3 region rose for the second
consecutive week by 800,000 bbl to 79 million bbl during the reference week.
Despite the build, inventories remained 8 million bbl below the same week last
year. Gasoline imports into the Gulf Coast climbed by 4,000 bpd to 92,000 bpd
compared with the previous week and were well above the 4,000 bpd reported
during the same week last year.
Distillate fuel oil inventories, the feedstock for diesel, rose by 2.6
million bbl to 45.7 million bbl during the profiled week, but remained 400,000
bbl below the 46.1 million bbl reported during the same week last year. As a
net exporter of distillate fuel, PADD 3 reported no distillate imports during
the reporting week.
In contrast, jet fuel inventories dipped for second straight week by 1.5
million bbl to 14.5 million bbl during the reference week but stood 1.2 million
bbl above the same week last year. Jet fuel imports into the Gulf Coast were
zero, compared to 28,000 bpd reported the previous week.
Weekly crude oil inventories in PADD 3 fell by 6.5 million bbl to 233.3
million bbl. Stocks were down10.5 million bbl from the same week last year.
Crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast rose by 232,000 bpd to 1.14 million bpd,
doubling the volume imported in the same period last year.
Refinery utilization on the Gulf Coast climbed to 97.8% of operable capacity
from 96.7% the previous week, EIA data showed.
EIA: Crude Stocks Tumble; Gasoline Flat Near 8-Month Low
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased during the week ended July
24, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday
(7/29).
Gasoline stocks were virtually unchanged to remain near eight-month lows
during the profiled week, while distillate fuel balances increased and jet fuel
inventories declined.
Commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.2 million bbl to 404.5
million bbl and were 22.2 million bbl, or 5.2%, below the same week last year.
Crude oil imports averaged 5.683 million bpd in the profiled week, down by
123,000 bpd from the previous week.
Total motor gasoline inventories were flat at 211.3 million bbl during the
week profiled. Gasoline inventories remained 17.1 million bbl, or 7.5%, below
the same week last year. Gasoline imports averaged 659,000 bpd compared with
494,000 bpd the previous week and 691,000 bpd a year earlier.
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1 million bbl to 110.6 million bbl
during the reference week but remained 2.9 million bbl, or 2.6%, below the same
week last year. Distillate imports averaged 98,000 bpd compared with 173,000
bpd the previous week and 229,000 bpd a year earlier.
Jet fuel inventories fell by 600,000 bbl to 46.8 million bbl last week but
remained 3.4 million bbl, or 7.8%, above the same week last year. Jet fuel
imports averaged 44,000 bpd compared with 155,000 bpd the previous week and
64,000 bpd a year earlier.
Refinery utilization edged up to 97.2% of operable capacity last week from
96.1% the previous week. Crude oil inputs into refineries averaged 17.336
million bpd, up by 271,000 bpd from the previous week's 17.065 million bpd.
Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.621 million
bpd, up 2.1% from the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.763
million bpd, essentially unchanged from the comparable four-week period of
2025, while distillate demand averaged 3.86 million bpd, up 1.5% from the
previous year. Jet fuel demand averaged 1.719 million bpd, up 0.6% from the
same four-week period last year.
EIA: Ethanol Stocks Edge Higher, Production Up 3.4% YoY
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (7/29 that
overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.133 million bpd in
the week ending July 24, up 39,000 bpd week-on-week and 37,000 bpd, or 3.4%
higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.09
million bpd was 3,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.071 million bpd, up 34,000 bpd
week-on-week and 31,000 bpd, or 3% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average output at 1.029 million bpd was 2,000 bpd below the same four
weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 939,000 bpd, up 1,000 bpd
week-on-week and 19,000 bpd, or 2.1% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average blending demand at 921,000 bpd was 16,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were up 5,000 bpd on the week while inputs in
the Midwest were down 2,000 bpd, unchanged on the Gulf Coast and down 4,000 bpd
on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 24.726 million bbl, up 245,000
bbl week-on-week and in line with year-ago levels.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.847 million bbl, down 16,000
bbl week-on-week and 604,000 bbl, or 8.1% lower than in the same week last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 10.08 million bbl, up 10,000 bbl
week-on-week and 163,000 bbl, or 1.6% higher than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 5.129 million bbl, up 43,000
bbl week-on-week and 267,000 bbl, or 5.5% higher than in the same week last
year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.353 million bbl, up 217,000
bbl week-on-week and 204,000 bbl, or 9.5% higher than in the same week last
year.
EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Rise 2.5%, Up 22.5% YoY
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (7/29) total
domestic propane/propylene stocks of 102.286 million bbl in the week ending
July 24, up 2.51 million bbl week-on-week and 18.809 million bbl, or 22.5%
higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 2.114 million bpd, up
541,000 bpd week-on-week and 485,000 bpd, or 29.8%, higher than in the same
week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 480,000 bpd,
down 46,000 bpd week-on-week and 609,000 bpd, or 55.9% lower than in the same
week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.884 million bpd,
down 10,000 bpd week-on-week and 62,000 bpd, or 2.2% higher than in the same
week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.698 million bbl, down 294,000
bbl week-on-week and 119,000 bbl, or 1.8% higher than in the same week last
year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 24.026 million bbl, up 508,000 bbl
week-on-week and 1.991 million bbl, or 9% higher than in the same week last
year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 66.971 million bbl, up 2.247
million bbl week-on-week and 16.686 million bbl, or 33.2% higher than in the
same week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the
week at 4.591 million bbl, up 49,000 bbl week-on-week and 14,000 bbl, or 0.3%
higher than in the same week last year.
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