MARKETWIRE ALERTS


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Energy Editor

   MarketWire Afternoon News Nov 10:

   Updated at 5:45 PM ET 

    

   HEADLINES:

   -- California Cuts 2035 BEV Forecast as Federal Credits End

   -- Buckeye ULSD Flips to Discount as Midwest Distillates Soften

   -- API: Crude Stocks Plunge 9.8M Bbl; Distillates Drop Too

   -- EIA: Nov STEO Cuts Winter NatGas Price By 36% From 2025-26

   -- EIA: Nov STEO Sees Steady 2026 for Brent at $97, WTI $88

   -- Chevron Pascagoula Permit Faces Nov. 13 Deadline

   -- Oxy Q3 Net Profit Up 148% Y-o-Y on Oil Price, Permian Jump

   -- EIA: U.S. Retail Diesel Falls 16.5cts to $6.127

   -- EIA: U.S. Gasoline Falls 15.8cts Below $4 Gallon

   -- U.S. Rack Gas Drops 12.82cts, Diesel 10

    

   NEWS

   California Cuts 2035 BEV Forecast as Federal Credits End

   The California Energy Commission (CEC) has cut by just over 16% its 
ownership forecast for light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2035, 
citing the end of federal tax credits.

   The CEC's baseline case, which reflects current policies and economic 
conditions, is 6.2 million BEVs in California by 2035 - versus its prior target 
of 7.19 million, draft presentations of the agency docketed on Monday (11/9) 
showed.

    

   Meanwhile, the CEC's high-end case, a model of what is achievable under new 
policies to meet the state's electrification goals, it will be 13.9 million 
BEVs - still 4.79% fewer than before.

   The docketed presentations are to be discussed on Thursday's public 
consultation workshop for CEC's Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) biennial 
update.

   Federal tax credits that expired in September 2025 have weighed on BEV 
sales. The electrified share of new-vehicle sales in California fell 4.89 
percentage points year over year in 2026 to 18.04%, short of the nearly 
one-quarter share the 2024 IEPR update anticipated.

   Advocates for BEVs say high gasoline and diesel prices, state BEV grants and 
a wider choice of vehicles and chargers will help still support demand, 
according to the presentations.

   The high-end case for sales also assumes strong growth in medium- and 
heavy-duty vehicles, although, as of now, it projects 31.82% fewer electrified 
trucks in 2035 than initially projected.

   The CEC cut its September 2035 light-duty EV demand forecast by 25.89% to 
8,300 MW at 9 a.m. The presentations did not include annual charging 
electricity demand or fuel-demand reduction projections. In its 2024 report, 
the CEC projected 57,000-103,000 GWh of EV charging demand by 2040, equivalent 
to roughly 110,300-198,400 b/d of gasoline using U.S. EPA metrics.

    

   Buckeye ULSD Flips to Discount as Midwest Distillates Soften

   The basis for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the Buckeye Complex pipeline 
swung from a premium to a discount Tuesday (11/10), dropping 14.75cts to settle 
at 10cts gallon under the December NYMEX ULSD contract amid diverging regional 
differentials across PADD 2.

   The plunge on Buckeye erased its prior 4.75cts premium over the paper 
benchmark.

   Chicago ULSD settled at a discount of 5cts to the benchmark futures, after 
narrowing by 10cts its prior day's deficit of 15cts.

   Wolverine ULSD basis edged 0.25ct higher to maintain a 5cts gallon premium.

   In the Midcontinent, Group 3 ULSD slipped 2.5cts to settle at a 7.5cts 
gallon discount to December futures.

   Midwest cash market activity developed alongside continued selling on NYMEX, 
where December ULSD futures dropped $0.0839 to settle at $4.1309 gallon, 
recovering off an intraday low of $3.9947 gallon.

   In jet fuel trade, Chicago gained 5cts to settle at a 5cts gallon premium, 
while Group 3 advanced 6cts to a 31cts gallon premium.

    

   API: Crude Stocks Plunge 9.8M Bbl; Distillates Drop Too

   U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 9.8 million bbl during the 
week ended November 6, while distillate fuel stocks also declined sharply and 
gasoline inventories increased, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported 
Tuesday (11/10).

   API reported a stockpile increase of 5.1 million bbl at the Cushing, 
Oklahoma, delivery hub for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures.

   Gasoline inventories rose by 2.7 million bbl during the reported week.

   Distillate fuel supplies fell by 8 million bbl during the week.

   The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its Weekly 
Petroleum Status Report on Thursday (11/12), a day later than usual, due to the 
Veterans Day federal holiday on Wednesday (11/11).

    

   EIA: Nov STEO Cuts Winter NatGas Price By 36% From 2025-26

   U.S. natural gas prices for the 2026-27 winter are expected to be more than 
a third lower than the 2025-26 cycle mainly due to lower projected demand for 
heating from warmer-than-usual temperatures, according to the latest Short Term 
Energy Outlook (STEO) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

   The Henry Hub spot price for gas is expected to average $2.87 MMBtu for 
November through March, the EIA's November STEO released Tuesday (11/10) 
showed. That puts the spot price at 16% beneath the EIA's October STEO forecast 
and 36% below the prior winter's pricing.

   The EIA pegged its forecast to November's early weather, assuming 13% fewer 
heating degree days for the month versus the 10-year average. That, it 
reasoned, will lift gas in storage at end-November to 3.840 Tcf - some 67 Bcf 
more than previously estimated. 

   The EIA also expects higher production of the fuel to weigh on prices. Dry 
gas output is forecast to climb 4.07% to 117.61 Bcfd in 2027, versus a 2.24% 
rise in consumption to 94.42 Bcfd, the EIA said. Consequently, Henry Hub 
pricing is seen falling to an annual average of $2.88 MMBtu next year, from 
$3.37 MMBtu this year.

   Residential and commercial consumption is forecast to slip 3.8% from a year 
ago to reach 36.4 Bcfd this winter. Severe cold in January or February could 
still push demand above the projection and cause temporary price spikes, the 
EIA cautioned, although national weather agency NOAA expects above-average 
temperatures across the northern United States from December through February.

   International natural gas prices, however, remain at their highest since 
December 2022, supporting U.S. LNG export economics.

   Following the U.S.-Iran conflict, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility - the 
benchmark for near-month European has futures - hit an average of $28.51 MMBtu 
in October compared with the pre-conflict level of $11.27 MMBtu in February.

   New U.S. export capacity is projected to lift LNG cargoes to average 17.6 
Bcfd this year, from 15.1 Bcfd in 2025, and to 19 Bcf/d next year.

    

   EIA: Nov STEO Sees Steady 2026 for Brent at $97, WTI $88

   The Energy Information Administration (EIA) kept crude price expectations 
for 2026 steady in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released 
Tuesday (11/10), making little immediate changes to Brent and WTI forecasts 
despite anticipating weaker markets for both in 2027.

   The EIA expects global crude benchmark Brent to average $97.44 bbl in 2026, 
up from the $96.32 bbl average it projected in October. For the fourth quarter 
of this year, Brent is expected to average $109.13 bbl, up $105 bbl from last 
month's forecast.

   For U.S. crude, WTI, or the West Texas Intermediate, is projected to average 
$88.29 bbl in 2026, up from the $88.21 bbl forecast in October, before falling 
to $80.54 bbl in 2027.

   The EIA said falling global inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the 
Persian Gulf, constrained shipping capacity and higher transportation costs had 
tightened crude supply over the past month, resulting in October's elevated 
prices.

   "Amid these conditions, we expect the Brent crude oil spot price will remain 
near $100 per barrel (b) for the remainder of this year," the EIA said in its 
overview of the November STEO.

   The agency, however, expects most Middle East production outside of Iran to 
return to pre-conflict averages by middle of next year.

   "As depleted global oil inventories build throughout next year, we forecast 
the Brent spot price will gradually fall to an average of $77/b in the fourth 
quarter of 2027," the EIA added.

    

   Chevron Pascagoula Permit Faces Nov. 13 Deadline

   Mississippi environmental regulators are reviewing a proposed air 
construction permit for Chevron's Pascagoula refinery, with the public comment 
period scheduled to close Friday (11/13).

   The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) opened the 
comment period on October 14 under permit No. 1280-00058. An air construction 
permit authorizes a refinery to install or modify equipment that could affect 
air emissions, including changes to processing operations or pollution-control 
systems. The modifications could also increase production of gasoline, diesel 
and jet fuel, according to MDEQ's March determination.

   The application follows MDEQ's approval on March 12 of Chevron's application 
to increase crude processing capacity at its Pascagoula Aggregates project from 
361,000 bpd to 394,000 bpd. Aside from the 33,000 bpd capacity boost, MDEQ 
approved improvements to the project's crude processing units, a hydrofiner and 
residuum desulfurization equipment, allowing the refinery to process additional 
crude volumes and lighter crude grades.

   The agency has not issued a final decision on the application currently 
under public review. The scope of the latest proposed construction work has not 
been independently confirmed.

    

   Oxy Q3 Net Profit Up 148% Y-o-Y on Oil Price, Permian Jump

   Occidental Petroleum reported a 148% surge in third-quarter net income, 
driven by higher global crude oil price realizations and record output across 
domestic onshore basins led by the Permian.

   Income after taxes stood at $1.64 billion versus the $661 million reported 
in the third quarter of 2025, the Houston, Texas-based upstream company said in 
results released after market hours Monday (11/9).

   Occidental reported that its worldwide average realized oil prices rose to 
$85.91 bbl during the quarter in review from $64.60 bbl a year ago. Domestic 
realized natural gas prices, meanwhile, surged 209% quarter-over-quarter to 
$1.61per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) compared to a negative $1.48 Mcf.

   Global production averaged 1,427,000 boed in the third quarter, topping the 
midpoint of company guidance behind strong operational execution in the Permian 
Basin and Rockies. Domestic U.S. volumes reached 1,246,000 boed, offsetting 
temporary third-party pipeline shut-ins and maintenance curtailments that 
limited Gulf of Mexico production to 110,000 boed. Total U.S. crude oil 
liftings averaged 614,000 bpd.

   "Strong operational performance across our domestic assets allowed us to 
exceed the midpoint of overall production guidance," CEO Vicki Hollub said, 
noting that upstream cash generation supported $1.8 billion in debt reduction 
during the period to hit the company's $10.0 billion principal debt milestone.

    

   EIA: U.S. Retail Diesel Falls 16.5cts to $6.127

   U.S. retail diesel prices fell 16.5cts to $6.127 gallon during the week 
ended November 9, marking a third consecutive weekly decline, Energy 
Information Administration data showed Tuesday (11/10).

   The national average reached its lowest level since the week ended October 
5, when diesel averaged $6.199 gallon, and was down 22.5cts from $6.352 gallon 
on October 26. Despite the recent declines, prices remained $2.290 above the 
corresponding week in 2025.

   All five PADD regions posted weekly declines, led by the Rocky Mountain 
region (PADD 4), where diesel dropped 23.9cts to $6.206 gallon, up $2.403 from 
the previous year. The Midwest (PADD 2) followed with a 20.1cts decrease to 
$6.201 gallon, exceeding its 2025 level by $2.310.

   Gulf Coast (PADD 3) diesel prices fell 17.1cts to $5.741 gallon, remaining 
$2.305 above the previous year. The Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) declined 12cts to 
$5.694 gallon, the lowest regional average nationwide, but still $1.933 higher 
than the same period in 2025.

   The West Coast (PADD 5) dropped 16.2cts to $7.110 gallon, maintaining the 
nation's highest regional average, up $2.565 from the previous year. California 
diesel fell to $7.897 gallon, a decline of 17.9cts based on the two weekly 
prices provided and remained $2.909 above its 2025 level.

    

   EIA: U.S. Gasoline Falls 15.8cts Below $4 Gallon

   U.S. retail gasoline prices dropped 15.8cts to $3.995 gallon during the week 
ended November 9, falling below $4 gallon for the first time since July, Energy 
Information Administration data showed Tuesday (11/10).

   The national average declined for a seventh consecutive week, shedding 
48.3cts since September 21, when gasoline averaged $4.478 gallon. Despite the 
extended retreat, prices remained 93.9cts above the corresponding week in 2025.

   The Rocky Mountain region (PADD 4) recorded the largest weekly decline, 
falling 26.7cts to $3.946 gallon, up $1.037 from the previous year. Midwest 
(PADD 2) gasoline dropped 23.4cts to $3.868 gallon, exceeding its 2025 level by 
95.8cts.

   West Coast (PADD 5) prices fell 18.6cts to $5.110 gallon, remaining the 
nation's most expensive region and 95.1cts higher than the previous year. The 
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) declined 15.5cts to $3.481 gallon, maintaining the lowest 
regional average, up 88.2cts from the same period in 2025.

    

   U.S. Rack Gas Drops 12.82cts, Diesel 10

   U.S. wholesale rack prices for gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) 
fell for a second consecutive day Tuesday (11/10), extending their decline as 
crude oil and refined product futures weakened on growing expectations of a 
diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

   Nationwide gasoline rack prices dropped 12.82cts, or 4.6%, to $2.6738 gallon 
from $2.8020 gallon Monday, according to DTN data. ULSD declined 10.68cts, or 
2.2%, to $4.6519 gallon from Monday's revised $4.7587 gallon.

   The continued retreat in petroleum prices followed President Donald Trump's 
remarks suggesting that hostilities with Iran could end relatively soon, 
reinforcing expectations that negotiations over nuclear issues and shipping 
through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the risk of further military action. 
However, uncertainty surrounding regional security and oil shipments continued 
to limit confidence in a lasting resolution.

   WTI crude fell to $85.18 bbl, its lowest level since August 31, when it 
closed at $85.75 bbl. NYMEX ULSD dropped 16.4cts to $4.0508 gallon, while RBOB 
gasoline declined 3.92cts to $2.6117 gallon.

   Refining margins weakened further for diesel, with the ULSD crack plunging 
$5.15 to $85.01 bbl, extending its retreat from above $100 bbl in late October. 
The gasoline crack, however, edged up $0.04 to $24.52 bbl despite weaker 
gasoline futures.

   Gasoline rack prices declined across all five PADDs, led by the Rocky 
Mountains, down 14.66cts to $2.8548 gallon. Midwest gasoline fell 14.65cts to 
$2.4696 gallon, while Gulf Coast prices dropped 12.63cts to $2.4898 gallon.

   Diesel racks also weakened nationwide, with Midwest ULSD posting the 
steepest decline at 13.88cts to $4.5748 gallon. Gulf Coast prices fell 13.1cts 
to $4.5214 gallon, while Rocky Mountain diesel dropped 12.81cts to $4.9567 
gallon.




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