Analysis: EIA Sees Exports Jump as Brent-WTI Spread Widens


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- Crude oil exports from the United States soared 900,000 bpd 
to a six-week high 4.59 million bpd in the week ending January 23, Energy 
Information Administration data revealed Wednesday (1/28).

   U.S. crude exports have been steadily rising in conjunction with WTI's 
growing discount to Brent and other benchmarks. Over the past four weeks, they 
averaged 3.69 million bpd, nearly 10% higher than in the comparable period last 
year. On the daily cumulative average, crude exports were up almost 5% 
year-on-year.

   Exports rose during most of the second half of 2025, taking a brief respite 
in November. During the same time, the Brent-WTI spread widened from its trough 
of $1.3 bbl in early July to $4.65 bbl by the end of September. The spread held 
steady in the fourth quarter, before WTI and Brent prices started to once again 
diverge at a faster pace from the beginning of the year.

   This growth in the differential coincided with the latest rise in exports. 
U.S. crude exports used to strongly correlate with the Brent-WTI spread and 
react to a change in the spread with a four- to six-week delay. While the 
inclusion of WTI in the Brent pricing basket has somewhat weakened that 
correlation, differences in crude oil spot prices can, depending on tanker 
economics, still lead to measurable surges in exports -- with a shortened delay 
compared to years past.

   Together with a more than 800,000 bpd decline in weekly imports, the 1.7 
million bpd flip in net imports more than countered the near 400,000-bpd drop 
in domestic demand last week, leading to a 2.3 million bpd draw to commercial 
inventories which took some market observers by surprise. Crude oil stocks tend 
to expand during this time of year as refiners cut back and enter maintenance 
season. While this is still likely to happen, they might experience an outsized 
pull from international demand in the weeks to come.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.