EIA Eyes Brent at $55 in 2026 Due to Global Stocks Build


   
Miguel E. Andujar
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) -- Brent crude is expected to average $55 bbl in 2026, 
compared with $69 bbl in 2025 and $81 bbl in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy 
Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for November 
released Wednesday (11/12). The agency said Brent prices will likely fall to 
$54 bbl in the first quarter of 2026 as rising global oil inventories continue 
to weigh on markets.

   U.S. crude prices are seen following a similar path, with values declining 
through early 2026 as global supplies outpace demand. The EIA said its 2026 
Brent forecast is $3 bbl higher than last month's due to revised assumptions 
about Chinese stockpiling and the impact of recent sanctions on Russia.

   The EIA projects global oil inventories will increase by an average of 1.8 
million bpd in 2025 and 2.2 million bpd in 2026, with the largest builds 
expected in the fourth quarter of this year and  the first quarter of next 
year, averaging 2.7 million bpd.

   OPEC+ production is anticipated to rise in line with the group's output 
targets through year end, though members plan to pause additional increases 
through March 2026 amid lower seasonal demand.

   U.S. crude oil production is projected to average 13.6 million bpd in both 
2025 and 2026, maintaining record highs.

   The EIA raised its domestic forecast slightly from October after reporting 
July production above 13.6 million bpd. Supply growth continues to be driven by 
the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, which together account for more 
than two-thirds of global output increases through next year.

   With crude prices easing, the EIA expects the average U.S. retail gasoline 
price to remain near $3.10 gallon in 2025 before falling to just under $3.00 
gallon in 2026, the lowest annual average since 2020.

   The EIA-STEO report projects U.S. diesel prices to average about $3.66 
gallon this year and decline to roughly $3.50 gallon in 2026. The EIA said 
lower crude costs remain the main driver, though rising diesel crack spreads 
could limit how much of the crude price decline reaches consumers.

    

    




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