Oil Futures Rise Despite Ample Supply Outlook and U.S. GDP Contraction


   
Maria Eugenia Garcia
DTN Energy Editor

   HOUSTON, TX (DTN) -- Oil futures reversed Thursday morning losses despite 
expectations of abundant supplies, as OPEC+ countries are scheduled to increase 
output in May, amid concerns about a potential recession in the United States.

   Crude oil futures contracts rebounded after NYMEX WTI was traded below the 
$57 bbl mark and ICE Brent traded at $59.30 bbl early morning.

   Eight OPEC+ countries are expected to accelerate crude oil production 
increases by 411,000 bpd in May, in addition to the 2.2 million bpd released in 
early April.

   The abundant supplies are expected to put pressure in oil futures markets as 
weak global demand continue, mainly from China, due to the impact of trade 
tariffs.

   Additionally, concerns about the contraction of the U.S. economy are 
expected to set the bearish tone in the oil futures market in the short term.

   Real gross domestic product (GDP) dropped at an annual rate of 0.3% in the 
first quarter of 2025, below the 2.4% increase reported in the fourth quarter 
of last year, according to the advance estimate released yesterday (4/30) by 
the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

   BEA cited an increase in imports -- likely tied in part to companies filling 
inventories ahead of anticipated tariffs -- and a decrease in government 
spending as the main drivers of GDP contraction.

   Growth estimates have been revised sharply downward because of new U.S. 
trade policies, especially those concerning high import tariffs on Chinese 
goods.

   The front-month NYMEX for June delivery rose by $0.42 bbl to $58.63 bbl, and 
ICE Brent for July delivery rose $0.38 bbl to $61.44 bbl.

   June RBOB gasoline futures edged up by $0.0184 to $2.0361 gallon, while the 
front-month ULSD futures contract rose by $0.0102 to $2.0120 gallon.

   The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 0.575 points to 99.845.




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