MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Barani Krishnan
DTN Energy Editor
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News Nov 5:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Green Plains Q3 Net Income Up Sevenfold Y-o-Y to Over $85M
-- EIA to Publish WPSR on Nov. 12 Due to Holiday
-- EIA to Release Natural Gas Report Nov. 13 Due to Holiday
-- Wolverine ULSD Drops 40cts as Midwest Enters C2 Cycle
-- DOE Awards 300,000 Bbl of Northeast Diesel to Four Firms
-- Circularity Fuels Gets $7M to Convert Dairy Biogas into SAF
-- California Non-CARB Gasoline Stocks Hit 21-Year Low
-- BTS: U.S. Airlines Sept Fuel Spending Down 4.3% from Aug
-- California Weekly Other Diesel Output More Than Triples
-- EIA: US NatGas Storage Reports 77 Bcf Weekly Injection
-- EIA: U.S. Refiners Shift from Gasoline to Diesel, Jet
-- U.S. Rack Diesel Drops 25.71cts Despite Oil Rebound
-- ConocoPhillips Q3 Net Profit Up 135% on Strong Realized Prices
NEWS
Green Plains Q3 Net Income Up Sevenfold Y-o-Y to Over $85M
Green Plains Inc reported on Thursday (11/5) that third quarter net income
rose more than sevenfold from a year ago to $85.4 million as clean fuel credits
and higher ethanol margins lifted earnings.
Section 45Z production tax credits at the Omaha, Nebraska firm--net of
discounts and other costs--supplied $65.4 million of adjusted EBITDA, helping
consolidated adjusted EBITDA more than double to a record $118.0 million from
the year-ago quarter.
Operating income at Green Plains' ethanol production segment more than
tripled to $99 million from the corresponding quarter a year ago.
The consolidated ethanol crush margin, a measure of segment profit before
depreciation and amortization, more than doubled to $122.8 million.
Ethanol production volumes fell 11.35% from a year ago to 4.16 million bbl,
after the sale of the company's Obion, Tennessee plant. The remaining eight
plants ran at 95% utilization, posting record quarterly ethanol and corn oil
yields.
Operating income at the agribusiness and energy services segment eased
14.03% to $6 million from the year-ago level. On October 29, Green Plains
executed an agreement to monetize $250 million to $325 million of this year's
45Z credits. The company also updated its full-year guidance for the credits'
contribution to adjusted EBITDA.
EIA to Publish WPSR on Nov. 12 Due to Holiday
The Energy Information Administration will delay by a day its Weekly
Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) due to next week's Veterans Day federal holiday,
the agency announced.
The WPSR, typically published at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesdays, will be
released at 12:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 12, because of the holiday on
Wednesday, November 11, the EIA stated.
EIA to Release Natural Gas Report Nov. 13 Due to Holiday
The Energy Information Administration will delay by a day its Weekly Natural
Gas Storage Report due to next week's Veterans Day federal holiday, the agency
announced.
The report, typically published at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursdays, will be
released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Friday, November 13, because of the holiday on
Wednesday, November 11, the EIA stated.
Wolverine ULSD Drops 40cts as Midwest Enters C2 Cycle
Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the Wolverine pipeline registered a basis
drop of 25cts Thursday (11/5), settling at a 10cts gallon discount to the
December NYMEX ULSD contract, on a broad decline in Midwest fuels amid the
start of the C2 cycle.
In Chicago and on the Buckeye Complex Pipeline, the ULSD basis fell by 25cts
each to a 10cts gallon discount to December futures.
In the Midcontinent, Group 3 ULSD basis edged 3.5cts lower to trade at Merc
levels.
C2 refers to the secondary 10-day pipeline scheduling and trading period for
November, characterized by a transition to higher-RVP winter-spec fuels. The
cycle typically marks quieter physical spot activity as buyers re-evaluate
terminal inventory needs and refiner run rates.
"It was a very quiet day overall, marking the first day of trading for C2,"
a Midwest fuels trader told DTN. "With refining capacity increasing into
November, buyers simply backed off physical bids as the new scheduling cycle
got underway."
In regional jet fuel trading, Chicago jet fuel basis held flat at a 10cts
gallon discount to December futures, while Group 3 jet fuel slipped 7.5cts to
settle at a 15cts gallon premium.
DOE Awards 300,000 Bbl of Northeast Diesel to Four Firms
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has collectively awarded the exchange of
300,000 bbl of ultra-low sulfur distillate (ULSD) from the Northeast Home
Heating Oil Reserve (NEHHOR) to four firms - Vitol Inc., Global Companies LLC,
Sprague Operating Resources LLC and Trafigura Trading LLC.
Vitol received the largest allocation at 125,000 bbl, followed by Global
Companies (100,000 bbl), Sprague (50,000 bbl) and Trafigura (25,000 bbl),
according to the award document dated Monday (11/2).
Together, the contracted volumes represent approximately 95% of the 315,000
bbl offered under DOE's October 21 solicitation - which was intended to address
regional fuel supply disruptions ahead of the winter heating season.
The fuel will be supplied from storage sites in Boston, Massachusetts, and
New Haven, Connecticut, with transfers or deliveries scheduled for completion
by Friday (11/6) - a week earlier than the original November 13 deadline
outlined in the solicitation.
The exchange recipients must return the same volume of fuel oil plus a
premium before the 2027-2028 heating season, allowing the government to
replenish its emergency reserve, according to the DOE.
The Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve maintains approximately 1 million bbl
of ULSD across storage facilities in the Northeast to address regional fuel
supply disruptions.
Circularity Fuels Gets $7M to Convert Dairy Biogas into SAF
Circularity Fuels said Thursday (11/5) it raised $7 million in seed
financing to advance technology that converts biogas from dairy manure into
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
The round was led by Trucks Venture Capital and DCVC, with participation
from Sum Ventures and Automotive Ventures. The funding will support an 18-month
effort to move the technology from laboratory proof to a commercial blueprint.
Circularity plans to build and operate a demonstration plant producing jet
fuel from biogas daily and complete engineering for a 75 bpd commercial
facility. The company also plans to secure airline fuel contracts needed before
construction and begin licensing technology behind its Ouro reactor, the
electrified core of its fuel-production process.
In June, Circularity announced it had completed what it described as the
world's first end-to-end conversion of raw dairy biogas into jet fuel. The
process was validated during a six-month pilot at a dairy near Madera,
California.
Circularity said its modular systems could allow livestock operations to
convert biogas into liquid fuel on farms, creating an additional revenue source
for farmers while expanding domestic SAF supplies. Fewer than 6% of large U.S.
livestock operations currently capture biogas produced from manure, according
to the company.
Circularity has raised about $17 million to date, including nearly $7
million in grants from ARPA-E and the National Science Foundation.
California Non-CARB Gasoline Stocks Hit 21-Year Low
California refiners' non-CARB gasoline inventories fell 26.98% from the
previous week to 471,000 bbl in the week ended October 30, the lowest in
California Energy Commission (CEC) data dating to January 2005.
The decline put stored volumes below the previous low of 483,000 bbl, set in
the week ended December 21, 2012 - even as production of non-CARB gasoline
edged up 2.02% from the prior week to 354,000 bbl. Production remained 30.18%
below the year-ago level, and stocks were 50.21% lower than in the
corresponding week a year ago.
By contrast, stored levels of CARB gasoline gained 6.19% from a week earlier
to 5.21 million bbl, but they were still 0.83% below last year's level. Output
of that California-spec gasoline increased 3.79% on the week to 4.78 million
bbl, 4.61% more than in the same week a year earlier.
Overall, gasoline production climbed 3.66% week over week to 5.13 million
bbl, 1.13% above the year-ago week. Meanwhile, total gasoline inventories,
which includes blending components, rose 1.71% from the week before to 10.31
million bbl, the highest since the week ended August 7, though 4.66% under the
level of a year ago. Stockpiles of blending components, included in total
storage levels, ticked up 0.96% from the previous week to 4.63 million bbl,
0.32% above the year-ago level.
Refiners also ran less crude, with runs slipping 2.53% from the prior week
to 8.17 million bbl, the lowest since the week ended May 29, though 0.01% above
the same week a year earlier. Crude inventories hit 7.69 million bbl in the
week ended October 23, the lowest in CEC data dating to January 2005. These
recovered 8.25% during the latest week to 8.32 million bbl, though they
remained 30.99% below the year-ago level.
BTS: U.S. Airlines Sept Fuel Spending Down 4.3% from Aug
U.S. scheduled service airlines spent $5.9 billion on aviation fuel in
September, down 4.3% from August as total fuel consumption declined, according
to data released Thursday (11/5) by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
However, total fuel expenditure remained up 69.2% when compared to September
2025 ($3.49 billion).
Total aviation fuel consumption reached 1.527 billion gallons in September,
down 7.8% from August (1.66 billion gallons).
The average cost per gallon of fuel rose to $3.86 in September, up 14 cents
or 3.7% from August ($3.72 per gallon).
Fuel prices averaged $2.30 per gallon in September 2025.
California Weekly Other Diesel Output More Than Triples
California refiners more than tripled their production of other diesel from
the previous week to 653,000 bbl in the week ended October 30, California
Energy Commission (CEC) data showed.
The rebound followed a week in which the category -- which groups including
ULSD meeting Environmental Protection Agency requirements, renewable diesel,
and high sulfur diesel -- had fallen to 198,000 bbl, the lowest since July
2022. However, production still trailed the 744,000 bbl made in the same week a
year ago.
CARB diesel production, by contrast, fell 35.27% from the prior week to
657,000 bbl, 0.77% above the same week a year earlier. Overall, total diesel
output rose 8.00% week over week to 1.31 million bbl, though it was 6.16% below
the year-ago level.
Inventories followed the same pattern, as other diesel stocks climbed 12.54%
from a week earlier to 1.29 million bbl, while CARB diesel stocks lost 14.75%
over the same period to 1.17 million bbl. Total diesel stocks of 2.47 million
bbl were 2.34% lower than the previous week and 3.52% under the same week a
year ago.
Jet fuel production reached its highest level since the week ended July 31,
climbing 6.22% from the previous week to 2.31 million bbl, or 18.94% above the
corresponding week a year ago.
MMEX Gets TCEQ Approval for Pecos Refining Project
Texas regulators approved the Permit by Rule registration for the second
modular unit of a planned 60,000-bpd refinery complex in Pecos County, MMEX
Resources said Thursday (11/5).
The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) notified MMEX affiliate
Pecos UltraClean Refining LLC of its approval for its 30,000-bpd north modular
unit, effective Friday (10/30), the Fort Stockton, Texas-based company said in
the SEC filing.
The commission previously approved permits for the 30,000-bpd south unit.
Both will produce a combined 22,344 bpd of ULSD. The complex would run Permian
light sweet crude and make LPG as a byproduct, according to the project's
website.
MMEX intends to continue advancing financing, engineering, procurement and
construction planning, but the filing gave no construction start date, project
cost or financing details.
The two modular refining trains will be mostly built in shops and trucked to
the site, the company previously said. MMEX's latest SEC annual report says
that design allows for an 18-month completion.
The company said it will distribute produced fuel through the Texas Pacifico
Transportation (TXPF) short rail line, which connects to BNSF, Union Pacific
and Ferromex.
The refining facility will also capture about 905 tons of CO2 per day for
enhanced oil recovery. MMEX is also developing the Trans Permian Energy, a
planned natural gas-to-power facility at the same site that would run turbines
on a hydrogen and natural gas blend.
EIA: US NatGas Storage Reports 77 Bcf Weekly Injection
Energy Information Administration data released midmorning Thursday (11/5)
show a 77 billion cubic feet injection into U.S. natural gas storage to 3.801
trillion cubic feet in the week ended October 30.
Natural gas in U.S. storage is 2.8% lower than last year and 1.4% above the
five-year average of 3.747 Tcf.
Regionally, EIA reports the East registered a 13 Bcf injection to 926 Bcf,
1.8% more than a year ago and 2.5% higher than the five-year average.
Natural gas in storage in the Midwest increased 23 Bcf week-on-week to 1111
Bcf, a 0.8% surplus compared to the same week a year ago and 2% higher than the
five-year average.
Mountain region natural gas in storage increased 2 Bcf, down 9.7%
year-on-year to 4% above the five-year average.
South Central storage rose 40 Bcf to 1208 Bcf, 6.6% less than in the same
week last year and 1.1% below the five-year average.
EIA: U.S. Refiners Shift from Gasoline to Diesel, Jet
U.S. refiners have shifted production away from gasoline toward distillate
fuel oil and jet fuel in 2026, responding to higher refining margins for middle
distillates amid constrained global supplies, the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) reported Thursday (11/5).
According to EIA's latest Petroleum Supply Monthly, which includes data
through August, gasoline yields averaged less than 45% from January through
August, falling below the five-year (2021-2025) minimum in every month despite
elevated gasoline prices.
U.S. refineries typically produce 45% to 50% gasoline from the crude oil
they process. The shift reflects efforts by refiners to maximize production of
diesel and jet fuel, where stronger profit margins have encouraged changes in
refinery output.
Distillate fuel oil yields, meanwhile, exceeded the five-year average in
every month through August and were generally higher than levels recorded
during the previous year. EIA attributed the increased production to elevated
distillate crack spreads and refining margins resulting from tight global
supplies.
Jet fuel production has followed a similar trend. The nationwide refinery
yield of jet fuel surpassed 12% for the first time in March 2026 and remained
at or above that level through August, according to EIA data.
The increase extends a trend from 2025, when jet fuel yields reached
five-year highs during most months. Higher jet fuel margins this year have
provided additional incentives for refiners to maintain elevated production.
According to EIA, gasoline, distillate fuel oil and jet fuel collectively
account for approximately 85% to 90% of U.S. refinery petroleum product output.
Refiners have adjusted their production yields this year to prioritize middle
distillates, driven by higher margins for diesel and jet fuel.
U.S. Rack Diesel Drops 25.71cts Despite Oil Rebound
U.S. wholesale rack prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) and gasoline
fell sharply Thursday (11/5), extending this week's weakness despite a recovery
in crude oil and refined product futures as uncertainty surrounding the Middle
East conflict continued to influence petroleum markets.
Nationwide ULSD rack prices dropped 25.71cts, or 5.1%, to $4.7360 gallon
from Wednesday's revised $4.9931 gallon, according to DTN data. Conventional
unleaded gasoline declined 18.93cts, or 6.4%, to $2.7755 gallon from $2.9649
gallon.
Oil futures recovered some of their recent losses as the market reassessed
expectations that Democratic victories in the U.S. midterm elections could
accelerate diplomatic efforts to end hostilities involving Iran. Reports of
additional tanker incidents and the possibility of further military action kept
supply risks in focus, limiting confidence in a near-term resolution.
WTI futures advanced $1.44 to $89.54 bbl, while NYMEX ULSD increased 7.41cts
to $4.2806 gallon. RBOB gasoline climbed 5.37cts to $2.7823 gallon, reversing
part of the recent decline in refined product futures.
Refining margins also improved, with the diesel crack rising $1.71 to $90.24
bbl. However, the spread remained well below the $100 bbl threshold exceeded in
late October, reflecting a substantial retreat in diesel refining economics
over the past two weeks. The gasoline crack increased $0.83 to $27.31 bbl.
Despite the futures recovery, ULSD rack prices declined across all five
PADDs, led by the Midwest, where prices plunged 34.21cts to $4.7136 gallon.
Gulf Coast diesel fell 30.72cts to $4.6096 gallon, while West Coast prices
dropped 28.85cts to $5.2099 gallon. East Coast ULSD declined 13.46cts to
$4.5501 gallon.
Gasoline racks also weakened nationwide, with West Coast prices posting the
largest decline, down 20.04cts to $3.4063 gallon. Gulf Coast gasoline fell
19.8cts to $2.5813 gallon, followed by the East Coast, where prices dropped
18.92cts to $2.7044 gallon.
ConocoPhillips Q3 Net Profit Up 135% on Strong Realized Prices
ConocoPhillips more than doubled its net profit year-on-year in the third
quarter of 2026, helped by higher average realized prices for crude oil and
natural gas despite lower production volumes, the company reported Thursday
(11/5).
Net profit jumped 132% to $4.0 billion from $1.7 billion in the third
quarter of 2025; in the second quarter of 2026, it was $3.9 billion.
The average realized price of crude for the third quarter of this year was
$61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), an increase of 32% from the $46.44
per BOE realized a year ago.
Adjusted earnings for the profiled quarter was $3.9 billion, versus $2.0
billion from the year prior.
Quarterly production averaged 2.302 million BOE per day (BOE/d), down 97,000
BOE/d from the third-quarter 2025 levels due to Middle East conflict
disruptions impacting Qatar and also higher Surmont royalties.
The Lower 48 operations delivered 1.517 million BOE/d, supported by strong
performance and record completion efficiency across key domestic shales.
For the fourth quarter, Conoco is targeting a production of between 2.32
million BOE/d and 2.36 million BOE/d, while keeping unchanged its guidance on
full-year capital expenditure and adjusted operating costs.
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
