MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News July 2nd:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
* MarketWire is closed for the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday
(7/3), resuming publication on Monday (7/6).
HEADLINES:
-- Midwest Weekly: Group 3 Jet Fuel Up 12.7cts, Gasoline Down
-- USWC Weekly: Gasoline Spot Prices Ease on Higher Stocks
-- NYH Weekly: CBOB Spot Prices Rise 4.25%, Jet Fuel Steady
-- USGC Weekly: ULSD Spot Prices Rise 2.90% on Tight Supply
-- Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Flat at 770
-- Analysis: Crack Spreads Soar as Fuel Supply Stays Tight
-- EIA: US NatGas Storage Reports 87 Bcf Weekly Injection
-- CEC: California Diesel Stocks Rise 194,000 Bbl on Week
-- AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 4.0% for Week Ended June 27
NEWS:
Midwest Weekly: Group 3 Jet Fuel Up 12.7cts, Gasoline Down
Midwest spot fuel prices finished mixed this week, with jet fuel continuing
its climb amid sliding inventories for the product while gasoline tumbled as
motor fuel stocks built.
Group 3 jet fuel led the change, surging 12.71cts to a weekly average of
$2.9123 gallon according tospot price moves monitored by DTN. That sharp
weekly increase pushed the product 61.62cts higher than its year-ago average.
Chicago jet fuel posted the second largest regional advance, climbing
11.31cts to finish at a weekly average of $2.7223 gallon. That rise left
Chicago values 31.62cts higher on the year.
Jet fuel stocks in the PADD 2 region fell by 300,000 bbl during the week
ended June 26 to 7.5 million bbl, the U.S. Energy Information Administration
reported on Wednesday (6/30). That sent regional jet fuel values soaring,
despite the EIA data showing inventories still 700,000 bbl above year-ago level.
Chicago CBOB saw the sharpest Midwest fuel price contraction for the week,
shedding 10.21cts to a weekly average of $2.7509 gallon. Despite the setback,
the price remained 73.68cts above its year-ago mark.
CBOB on the Wolverine pipeline recorded the second largest decline by
slipping 7.06cts to finish at a weekly average of $2.8184 gallon. That closing
value leaves the regional spot price 74.68cts higher than the corresponding
week last year.
PADD 2 gasoline stocks built by 200,000 bbl on the week to 43.9 million bbl.
That regional inventory level stands 3.5 million bbl below the corresponding
period last year. Weekly gasoline imports into the Midwest also rose by 1,000
bpd on the week to average 14,000 bpd. That inbound volume surpassed the
year-ago import pace of 11,000 bpd.
USWC Weekly: Gasoline Spot Prices Ease on Higher Stocks
U.S. West Coast gasoline prices continued to soften this week as regional
fuel inventories increased and the absence of refinery flaring activity kept
supply concerns muted.
San Francisco CARBOB regular prices weakened by 4cts to $3.2845 gallon, but
stood 42.79% higher than the same week last year. Meanwhile, Los Angeles CARBOB
dropped 3cts to $3.2295 gallon, 41.84% higher than the previous year.
On diesel, Los Angeles recorded the steepest increase, climbing by 4cts, or
1.30% to $3.6298 gallon. This was 26.79% above the level reported a year
earlier.
Los Angeles jet fuel averaged $3.0748 gallon during the week, up 1.09cts, or
0.36%, from the previous week's average of $3.0639 gallon and 23.81% above the
same week last year. Trading activity remained relatively quiet throughout the
week, with the Los Angeles jet fuel basis ending at a 15cts discount to NYMEX
ULSD futures.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 5 region increased for the sixth
consecutive week, climbing by 300,000 bbl to 29.2 million bbl during the week
ended June 26, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Weekly
Petroleum Status Report released Wednesday (7/1). Inventories were 700,000 bbl
below the same week last year. Meanwhile, gasoline imports into the region
increased by 97,000 bpd to 165,000 bpd, although they remained 85,000 bpd below
year-ago levels.
Distillate inventories in PADD 5 also increased, rising 300,000 bbl to 11.6
million bbl during the week ended June 26 and standing 700,000 bbl above last
year's levels. Distillate imports declined by 19,000 bpd to 17,000 bpd but
remained at 7,000 bpd above the same week last year. Jet fuel inventories
climbed 900,000 bbl to 11.9 million bbl, while refinery utilization increased
to 94.2% from 93.7% a week earlier.
Further supporting the market's softer tone, no significant refinery flaring
events or unplanned operational disruptions were reported across the U.S. West
Coast this week. Steady refinery operations, rising inventories and the absence
of supply disruptions continued to pressure regional gasoline values, with the
Pacific Northwest sub-octane market recording the week's sharpest decline while
diesel and jet fuel markets remained comparatively stable.
NYH Weekly: CBOB Spot Prices Rise 4.25%, Jet Fuel Steady
New York Harbor (NYH) fuel spot prices were mixed during the week ended July
2, as gasoline and diesel posted increases, while jet fuel remained largely
unchanged, despite a rebound in East Coast distillate inventories and refinery
utilization falling to its lowest level since mid-April.
CBOB regular recorded the strongest weekly advance, rising 11.97cts, or
4.25%, to average $2.9355 gallon. The gasoline grade also posted the largest
increase from the previous year, trading 44.14% above the same period in 2025.
Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) followed closely, increasing 11.82cts, or
3.78%, to average $3.2457 gallon. The weekly average was 29.34% above the
corresponding period of the previous year.
Jet fuel prices were nearly unchanged, increasing 0.31cts, or 0.11%, to
average $2.8671 gallon, while remaining 26.24% above the same week of the
previous year, according to DTN data.
The mixed performance came ahead of the long U.S. Independence Day weekend,
as front-month WTI crude futures fell roughly 4.3% during the week, easing from
an opening level of $70.75 bbl to below $67.70 bbl as geopolitical risk
premiums continued to fade.
Mixed inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also
provided conflicting signals. PADD 1 gasoline inventories declined by 800,000
bbl to 57.2 million bbl during the week ended June 26, leaving stocks 4.5
million bbl below the same week of the previous year. Gasoline imports also
declined by 179,000 bpd to 387,000 bpd.
Distillate fuel oil inventories rose by 1.6 million bbl to 23 million bbl
after falling the previous week to a one-year low. Meanwhile, East Coast
distillate imports fell by 24,000 bpd to 60,000 bpd. Jet fuel inventories
dropped by 500,000 bbl to 11.1 million bbl, leaving stocks 100,000 bbl below
the comparable week of the previous year.
PADD 1 crude oil inventories declined by 600,000 bbl to 7.9 million bbl,
while crude imports fell by 111,000 bpd to 429,000 bpd from the previous week.
Operationally, refinery activity slowed further across the East Coast, with
refinery utilization dropping to 68.3% from 76.5% a week earlier while crude
oil inputs declined to 617,000 bpd. No refinery outages or other supply
disruptions were reported in the region.
USGC Weekly: ULSD Spot Prices Rise 2.90% on Tight Supply
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) fuel spot prices increased during the shortened
trading week ended July 2, ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, as
tighter gasoline inventories and another weekly decline in crude oil stocks
supported refined products. All three major products remained above their
previous year's levels.
USGC ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) posted the strongest increase during the
week, rising 8.98cts, or 2.84%, week-over-week to average $3.2364 gallon. This
was 32.94% higher than the value reported in the same period last year.
Meanwhile, CBOB regular increased 3.54cts, or 1.28%, to average $2.8118
gallon on a weekly basis and was 43.14% higher than during the same period last
year.
In the jet fuel market, the spot price edged up 0.72cts, or 0.26%, to
average $2.7352 gallon for the week, and it was 1.23% higher than during the
same week last year.
The weekly increases came even as front-month WTI crude futures fell roughly
4.3% during the week, easing from an opening level of $70.75 bbl to below
$67.70 bbl as geopolitical risk premiums continued to fade.
Mixed inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration
provided mixed signals for the market. PADD 3 gasoline inventories fell by 2.2
million bbl to 76.5 million bbl during the week ended June 26, leaving stocks
9.6 million bbl below the same week of the previous year. Gasoline imports
increased by 73,000 bpd from zero the prior week.
Distillate fuel oil inventories in PADD 3 were unchanged at 42.7 million
bbl, matching the level reported during the same week of the previous year.
Meanwhile, jet fuel inventories increased by 1.7 million bbl to 16.8 million
bbl, standing 1.8 million bbl above the comparable week of the previous year.
PADD 3 crude oil inventories declined by 2.3 million bbl to 237.5 million
bbl, while crude imports dropped by 367,000 bpd to 807,000 bpd. Refiners
increased crude runs to 9.613 million bpd from 9.453 million bpd the previous
week.
Operationally, Gulf Coast refiners continued to run at high rates, with
utilization rising to 98.1% in the week ended June 26 from 96.7% a week
earlier. No significant supply disruptions were reported across the region.
Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Flat at 770
North American energy drilling activity was unchanged this week, according
to Baker Hughes' weekly rigs report released Thursday (7/2). The regional rig
count for the week ended July 2 stood at 770, flat from the prior week to June
26.
Year on year, rigs for Canada and the U.S. combined were up 80 from the 690
actively deployed in the same week of 2025.
This week's flat data followed offsetting movements, as the U.S. count rose
while Canadian activity fell. The domestic rig count increased by seven to 580,
while Canada's tally dropped by seven to 190.
In the U.S. alone, oil-directed rigs increased by five to 445, while
gas-directed rigs rose by one to 126.
Miscellaneous rigs in the U.S. also gained one to stand at nine. By
trajectory, U.S. horizontal rigs increased by 33 to 520, vertical rigs gained
one to 12, and directional rigs fell by 25 to 48.
Analysis: Crack Spreads Soar as Fuel Supply Stays Tight
After two weeks of resurging flows from the Middle East, crude oil prices
have plummeted close to pre-war levels, with Brent dropping below $71 bbl and
WTI below $68 bbl. Refined product futures prices, however, have softened at a
much slower pace, sending crack spreads and refining margins soaring.
This week, crack spreads rocketed close to their all-time high reached in
the first months of Russia's invasion on Ukraine in 2022 when they briefly
topped the $60 bbl-mark. The 3:2:1 crack spread versus Brent on Wednesday (7/1)
jumped to $59.213 bbl, more than twice the levels in late February before the
start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
In contrast to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict scenario, cracks have since
the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz completely diverged from the underlying
crude price. They typically move in tandem, given that a higher crude price
results in higher product prices and therefore a larger difference. Throughout
June, however, crude prices came crashing down while crack spreads rallied.
The flood of crude oil leaving the Persian Gulf since the reopening of the
Strait of Hormuz has led to a temporary glut in a market which for the last
four months adapted to severely restricted supply. Ship tracking data showed
outbound tanker traffic returning to around two thirds of normal levels last
week. Global refiner demand is still reeling from the disruption as refiners
were forced to slash runs amid the lack of input availability, all while
emergency stockpiles continue to be released. This has led to a temporary
imbalance where refiners are geared toward operating at restricted levels,
which is reflected in their crude cargo bookings and current buying interest.
While the reopening of Middle Eastern spigots was immediate, refiners ramping
up operations can't be.
This months-long refining lull meant months of low fuels production and
tightening inventories. The decline in commercial crude oil stocks was
feathered by vast releases from emergency reserves by the U.S. and other member
countries of the International Energy Agency. So far, close to 90 of the
planned 172 million bbl have been released from the U.S. SPR, which has
consequently dropped to the lowest since 1983. This respite was not available
for refined products. To make matters worse, global product inventories were
nowhere near as well-stocked as crude oil inventories, which in January stood
at the highest in five years.
All this was evident in price movements in June. While crude futures have
relinquished nearly all their wartime gains, refined product futures continued
to hold on to a portion of them. Front-month NYMEX RBOB futures are still
trading some 38% higher than on the last day of February, while NYMEX ULSD
futures continued to be 19% above pre-war levels.
Much of the demand destruction stemming from logistical constraints may be
restored, but high prices have weighed on both current and likely future fuels
demand. The silver lining for crude demand is the need to restock depleted
global inventories, but for now, at least strategic reserves will continue to
dwindle. The IEA in its latest monthly report estimated that global oil demand
would shrink by 1.1 million bpd in 2026, compared to earlier estimates of a
420,000-bpd decline and pre-war expectations of a 900,000-bpd increase.
The final outcome of the race between resurging supply from the Middle East
and rebounding global oil demand is hard to gauge. For now, however, a tight
products balance combined with a temporary crude glut translates into hefty
refining margins and fuel prices only gradually easing compared to crude,
proving true more than ever the industry adage of product prices "rising like a
rocket and falling like a feather".
EIA: US NatGas Storage Reports 87 Bcf Weekly Injection
nergy Information Administration data released midmorning Thursday (7/2)
show a 87 billion cubic feet injection into U.S. natural gas storage to 2.922
trillion cubic feet in the week ended June 26.
Natural gas in U.S. storage is 0.8% lower than last year and 6.4% above the
five-year average of 2.747 Tcf.
Regionally, EIA reports the East registered a 29 Bcf injection to 587 Bcf, 2.2%
less than a year ago and 2.3% higher than the five-year average.
Natural gas in storage in the Midwest increased 34 Bcf week-on-week to 706 Bcf,
a 3.1% surplus compared to the same week a year ago and 6.3% higher than the
five-year average.
Mountain region natural gas in storage increased 3 Bcf, up 1.3% year-on-year to
21.7% above the five-year average.
South Central storage rose 20 Bcf to 1086 Bcf, 5.3% less than in the same week
last year and 1.6% above the five-year average.
CEC: California Gasoline Stocks Rebound 445,000 Bbl on Week
California Energy Commission data show statewide gasoline inventories
increased in the week ending June 26, as the agency continues to report only
statewide totals in its Weekly Fuels Report released Thursday (7/2).
Statewide gasoline stocks, including CARB reformulated, non-California, and
blending components, climbed by 445,000 bbl to 10.317 million bbl from 9.872
million bbl the previous week but remained 16% below the same week last year.
Statewide gasoline production fell by 284,000 bbl to 5.265 million bbl from
5.549 million bbl the previous week and was 12% lower than the year-ago level.
CEC: California Diesel Stocks Rise 194,000 Bbl on Week
California Energy Commission data show statewide diesel inventories
increased in the week ending June 26, as the agency continues to report only
statewide totals in its Weekly Fuels Report released Thursday (7/2).
Statewide CARB diesel and other diesel fuel stocks increased by 194,000 bbl to
2.834 million bbl from 2.640 million bbl the previous week and were little
changed from 2.827 million bbl in the same week last year.
Statewide diesel production rose by 21,000 bbl to 1.512 million bbl from 1.491
million bbl the previous week but remained 4% below the year-ago level of 1.583
million bbl.
AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 4.0% for Week Ended June 27
The Association of American Railroads reported that petroleum and petroleum
product carloads totaled 10,757 during the week ended June 27, up 4.0% from a
year ago.
Year-to-date, cumulative petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled
273,431, up 7.4% from the same period a year ago, an AAR report published on
Wednesday (7/1) showed.
Total weekly traffic for the profiled week reached 525,474 carloads and
intermodal units, representing an increase of 7.0% from the corresponding week
a year ago.
Total carloads for the specific week ended June 27 reached 232,408, showing
an expansion of 3.3% compared directly with the corresponding week of last year.
Weekly intermodal volume for the period reached 293,066 containers and
trailers, representing a clear increase of 10.1% from the corresponding week of
the prior year.
Year-to-date, cumulative U.S. railroad carloads reported for the first 25
weeks of the current year stood at 5,681,611, up 3.2% from the same point last
year.
Cumulative intermodal units over the same year-to-date timeframe reached
6,984,982 units, representing a solid improvement of 3.3% compared to the same
period a year ago.
Total combined rail traffic for the first 25 weeks of the year reached
12,666,593 carloads and intermodal units, expanding 3.3% compared to the prior
year.
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