MARKETWIRE ALERTS


   
   MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

   MarketWire Afternoon News June 23rd:

   Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

    

   HEADLINES:

   -- API:  Crude Draws 9th Straight Week, Fuel Stocks Rise

   -- PNW Sub Octane Basis Falls 5cts on Softer Market

   -- Analysis: Sliding SPR Cuts Cushion for USGC Fuel Markets

   -- Group 3 Jet Fuel basis at 3-Wk Low Amid NYMEX ULSD Rise

   -- Dallas Fed: U.S. Economy Less Exposed to Oil Shocks

   -- EIA: UAE Exit Trims OPEC Global Production Share by 4%

   -- EIA: Weekly U.S. Diesel Price Drops for 6th Week

   -- EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Average Falls 13.8cts on Week

    

   NEWS:

    

   API:  Crude Draws 9th Straight Week, Fuel Stocks Rise

   U.S. crude oil stockpiles declined for a ninth consecutive week during the 
week ended June 19, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose, the American 
Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday (6/23).

   U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell by 765,0000 bbl last week, extending 
the 8.33 million bbl draw reported in the previous week.

   API also cited a crude draw of 982,000 bbl at the Cushing, Oklahoma, 
delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, below the 1.523 
million bbl decrease reported for the same during the prior week.

   Gasoline inventories increased by 1.238 million bbl, versus the prior build 
of 2.479 million bbl.

   Distillate fuel oil stocks rose by 1.447 million bbl, compared with the 
461,000 bbl draw seen in the prior week.

    

   PNW Sub Octane Basis Falls 5cts on Softer Market

   Pacific Northwest sub octane regular gasoline basis weakened Tuesday (6/23), 
falling by 5cts as regional gasoline market sentiment softened amid the 
continued absence of significant refinery disruptions across the U.S. West 
Coast.
The Pacific Northwest sub octane basis was indicated at a discount of 5.5cts to 
July NYMEX RBOB futures, versus  Monday's (6/22) last assessed discount of 
0.5cts.
No major refinery flaring events or unplanned outages have been reported 
recently at key West Coast refining facilities, helping ease supply concerns 
that had supported regional gasoline values in recent months.
Latest inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows 
motor gasoline stockpiles in the PADD 5 region climbing by 700,000 bbl to 28 
million bbl during the week ended June 12, adding to the previous week's 
addition of 7.3 million.

   Year-on-year, gasoline stocks in the region were 1.2 million bbl lower. PADD 
5 gasoline imports fell by 13,000 bpd to 96,000 bpd last week and were 73,000 
bpd lower compared with the same week last year.

    

   Analysis: Sliding SPR Cuts Cushion for USGC Fuel Markets

   Drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have plunged U.S. 
emergency oil stocks to a 1983 low, yet Gulf Coast refined product prices 
remain historically elevated as supply constraints and operational strains on 
regional refineries offset the government's supply releases.

   Latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed the SPR declined 
to 340.3 million bbl during the week ended June 12, down from roughly 402 
million bbl a year earlier and equal to just under 48% of its maximum 
authorized design capacity of 714 million bbl.

   That matters because the Gulf Coast sits at the center of the U.S. petroleum 
system. The region contains more than half of U.S. refining capacity, receives 
imported crude, houses the largest concentration of export infrastructure and 
typically handles about 80% of U.S. refined product exports.

   The PADD 3 region is also home to most of the SPR caverns and serves as the 
primary refining hub supplying both domestic and international markets.

   The risk: As hurricane season advances and geopolitical risks remain 
elevated, lower strategic reserves leave the Gulf Coast market with less room 
to absorb the next supply disruption than in previous cycles.

    

   Sticky Pricing

   Price action in the Gulf Coast show markets easing from the highs triggered 
by this year's Middle East conflict, though they remain higher over the longer 
term.

   According to DTN data, U.S. Gulf Coast CBOB gasoline averaged $2.7820 gallon 
in the latest week, down 3.1% from the previous week. Ultra-low sulfur diesel 
(ULSD) declined 9.6% to $3.0772 gallon, while jet fuel dropped 11.8% to $2.7237 
gallon.

   But compared with the same period last year, Gulf Coast gasoline prices 
remained 34.6% higher, ULSD traded 33.2% above year-ago levels and jet fuel 
remained 23.1% above the comparable period in 2025 despite recent declines.

   Inventory balances also point to a market that remains relatively tight.

   Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the SPR stood at 418.2 million 
bbl, below the 420.9 million bbl reported a year earlier.

   Inside the Gulf Coast, crude inventories declined to 243.8 million bbl, the 
lowest level since the week ended February 13, when stocks stood at 234.3 
million bbl.

   Gasoline inventories dropped to 77.8 million bbl, the lowest level since 
November 7, 2025, and nearly 10 million bbl below last year. Distillate 
inventories fell to 39.7 million bbl, the lowest since May 8, 2025, and 
remained 4.6 million bbl below year-ago levels. ULSD inventories also remained 
below year-ago levels, while jet fuel inventories at 15.9 million bbl were one 
of the few product categories running above last year.

    

   Stretched Refineries

   Refinery activity offers another indication of how hard the system has been 
operating.

   Gulf Coast refinery utilization reached 98% earlier in June before easing to 
96.2% in the latest report.

   Crude inputs remained elevated near historical highs. According to EIA 
weekly data, Gulf Coast refiners processed 9.595 million bpd during the week 
ended May 29, 9.582 million bpd during the week ended June 5 and 9.429 million 
bpd during the latest reporting week ended June 12.

   Viewed in that context, today's SPR appears materially smaller than in prior 
cycles.

   At the latest PADD 3 crude input rate of 9.429 million bpd, the current SPR 
inventory of 340.3 million bbl would theoretically provide cover for about 36 
days of Gulf Coast refinery feedstock demand.

   For perspective, when the SPR operated closer to historical levels, the 
reserve represented roughly 65 days of Gulf Coast refinery crude requirements 
based on historical refinery demand assumptions.

   In conclusion, diminished strategic reserves leave Gulf Coast fuel markets 
with a significantly narrower cushion to absorb potential supply disruptions 
this summer. Advancing hurricane seasonal risks and lingering geopolitical 
tensions also make the region more vulnerable compared to previous energy 
cycles.

    

   Group 3 Jet Fuel basis at 3-Wk Low Amid NYMEX ULSD Rise

   The Group 3 jet fuel basis hit its lowest levels in three weeks on Tuesday 
(6/23), aligning with a rebound in NYMEX ultra-low sulfur diesel futures. 
Midwest distillate markets, meanwhile, faced renewed pressure.

   Group 3 jet fuel was talked at a discount of 33cts gallon to the July NYMEX 
ULSD contract, narrowing by 12cts for a second consecutive day of double-digit 
advances.

   The last time Group 3 jet fuel attracted a smaller discount was on June 1, 
when it was 26.25cts lower against the NYMEX ULSD benchmark.

   The discount for Chicago jet fuel, in contrast, remained flat at Monday's 
55cts gallon to July NYMEX ULSD.  

   On the diesel market, the discount for Group 3 ULSD widened by 2cts to 
21.25cts gallon against the NYMEX benchmark. In Chicago, the discount for ULSD 
widened by 10cts to 30cts gallon.

   Midwest jet fuel and ULSD prices have diverged again this week amid 
volatility on the NYMEX, where July futures rose 2.5% in Tuesday's session 
after Monday's 4.3% drop.

   The market swings came on the back of negotiations for a U.S.-Iran peace 
deal amid structurally tight supply of distillate barrels.

    

   Dallas Fed: U.S. Economy Less Exposed to Oil Shocks

   The U.S. economy is significantly less vulnerable to geopolitical oil supply 
disruptions than in previous decades, according to research published on 
Tuesday (6/23) by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which noted current 
energy markets shakeups were only a fraction in impact to the 1970s-80s oil 
crises.

   Despite the most severe disruption to oil supply caused by this year's Iran 
war, the Dallas Fed found the U.S. structurally better positioned to absorb 
resulting market shocks as its economy was relatively less dependent oil now 
than decades ago.  Stronger domestic energy production also provided a better 
shield to the U.S. economy now compared with the past, the Texas division of 
the U.S. central bank noted.

   The Dallas Fed's analysis comes as energy markets continue to assess the 
economic implications of the 2026 Iran war and the temporary closure of the 
Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted the transit of some 20 million bpd of 
petroleum liquids.

   According to the study, a geopolitical disruption equal to 15% of global oil 
supplies would reduce annualized U.S. real gross domestic product growth by 
roughly 0.3 percentage points under current market conditions.

   By comparison, the same shock would have lowered U.S. GDP growth by an 
estimated 5.6 percentage points in 1980.

   Researchers attributed much of the improvement to structural changes in U.S. 
energy markets over the last four decades.

   The United States shifted from being a major net importer of crude oil and 
refined products to becoming a net exporter in late 2019 following the shale 
production boom. At the same time, oil and refined product expenditures as a 
share of GDP declined to about 3% in 2024 from nearly 8% in 1980.

   The report found those changes reinforce each other. Lower oil intensity 
reduces the impact of higher fuel costs across the economy, while oil export 
revenues help offset losses elsewhere when crude prices rise.

   The findings also suggest the U.S. remains better insulated than most major 
oil-importing economies.

   Under the same modeled disruption, annualized GDP growth in the rest of the 
world would decline by 1.7 percentage points compared with 0.3 percentage 
points in the United States.

   Still, the report noted U.S. consumers remain exposed to higher gasoline, 
diesel and jet fuel prices because petroleum markets remain globally linked and 
disruptions abroad continue to influence domestic fuel costs.

   The research suggests geopolitical oil supply disruptions continue to 
influence energy prices worldwide, but the broader U.S. economy no longer 
reacts with the same intensity seen during earlier energy crises.

    

   EIA: UAE Exit Trims OPEC Global Production Share by 4%

   The United Arab Emirates' exit from the Organization of the Petroleum 
Exporting Countries will likely reduce the group's global crude production 
share from 35% down to 31%, the Energy Information Administration said in an 
analysis published Tuesday (6/23).

   This UAE'S departure also likely lowers the broader OPEC+ alliance's total 
global market share from 46% down to 42%, aligning with the output loss from 
the Gulf region's second largest oil producer, the EIA noted. The analysis 
elaborates on the agency's observations about OPEC in the EIA Short-Term Energy 
Outlook released on June 9, after the official OPEC exit on May 1.

   The EIA's observations come as the Iran war extends past the 100-day mark 
following its February 28 outbreak. During the 3-1/2 month long conflict, Saudi 
Arabia and the UAE successfully minimized internal shut-in production volumes 
compared to neighboring Middle Eastern competitors during the prolonged 
shipping crisis.

   Both countries also actively utilized major overland pipeline workarounds 
following the regional conflict and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, 
which trapped some 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids that transit the 
waterway. The UAE redirected crude barrels via the pipeline to Fujairah, while 
Saudi Arabia utilized its 7 million bpd East-West line to reach the Red Sea.

   The EIA noted that the de facto closure of the strategic waterway has 
effectively stripped OPEC of its physical ability to increase production 
levels. While regular OPEC+ ministerial meetings continue focusing on setting 
global baseline targets, actual output management remains entirely restricted 
by these localized shipping infrastructure bottlenecks, the agency pointed out.

   While both Iran and the U.S. have declared the Hormuz open again to shipping 
as they negotiate a peace deal following a 60-day ceasefire signed last week, 
the market is cautiously monitoring operational bottlenecks, unresolved 
insurance risks and the lingering threat of sea mines on the waterway.

   Notwithstanding the EIA analysis, Iran will also be adding to its output 
over the next two months after the U.S. Treasury announced Monday (6/22) a 
60-day sanctions waiver on export and global sales of Iranian oil. While Iran 
remains a founding member of OPEC, due to long-standing geopolitical friction 
and sanctions, it has been exempted from OPEC+ production targets. As such, 
under the sanctions waiver, it will be introducing new barrels to the market 
independent of OPEC.

    

   EIA: Weekly U.S. Diesel Price Drops for 6th Week

   The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday (6/23) that 
retail diesel prices declined for a sixth consecutive week during the week 
ended June 22, with the national average dropping 22.7cts to $4.832 gallon.

   Compared with the same time last year, diesel nationwide was up $1.057 
gallon on average.

   The weekly decline was led by a 28.1cts drop in West Coast less California 
diesel to $5.238 gallon, while the smallest decrease occurred in the Central 
Atlantic PADD 1B region, where prices fell 13.5cts to $5.368 gallon.

   The continued weakness across retail markets comes as elevated refinery 
utilization and improving supply availability continued to pressure diesel 
values lower, although prices remained above levels seen during the same period 
last year.

   East Coast diesel prices fell 16.2cts to $4.886 gallon for the week ended 
June 22. This PADD 1 region showed a $1.096 gallon increase compared with the 
same period last year.

   New England diesel prices declined 13.7cts to $5.371 gallon. Compared with 
the same time last year, this PADD 1A region was up $1.404 gallon.

   The Central Atlantic witnessed a 13.5cts decrease on the week. Prices in the 
PADD 1B region averaged $5.368 gallon, rising $1.449 compared with the previous 
year.

   Diesel prices in the Lower Atlantic averaged $4.657 gallon. This PADD 1C 
region reflects a 17.4cts decrease on the week and a $0.932 gallon rise from 
the same time last year.

   In the Midwest, diesel prices fell 26.0cts on the week. The PADD 2 region 
averaged $4.751 gallon, which was $0.974 gallon higher than levels seen a year 
earlier.

   On the Gulf Coast, diesel fell 23.1cts on the week to $4.415 gallon. 
Compared with the prior year, prices in PADD 3 were up $0.979 gallon.

   Rocky Mountain diesel saw a 22.4cts decrease on the week to $4.795 gallon. 
The PADD 4 region posted a $1.106 gallon increase compared with the same time 
last year.

   West Coast diesel prices fell 26.5cts on the week to average $5.809 gallon. 
Compared with the previous year, the PADD 5 region was up $1.351 gallon.

   West Coast less California diesel slipped 28.1cts on a weekly basis to 
$5.238 gallon. This represented a $1.156 gallon increase from the same time 
last year.

   California diesel itself fell 24.5cts on the week to $6.468 gallon. Prices 
in the state remain the highest in the nation, sitting at $1.575 gallon above 
levels seen at the same time last year.

    

   EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Average Falls 13.8cts on Week

   The national average for retail regular gasoline declined sharply in the 
week ended June 22, with prices falling across all major regions, according to 
U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Tuesday (6/23).
The U.S. average for regular gasoline fell 13.8cts to $3.914 gallon last week 
from $4.052 gallon the previous week and was 70.1cts higher than the same week 
last year, the EIA's weekly fuel pricing update showed.
East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline dropped 13.6cts to $3.777 gallon in the week ended 
June 22 while standing 70.5cts above the same period last year.
Within the East Coast, New England (PADD 1A) gasoline declined 14.9cts to 
$3.952 gallon week over week and was 87.3cts higher than the same week in 2025.
Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) gasoline prices fell 12.5cts on the week to $4.015 
gallon, 80.3cts above year-ago levels.
Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) gasoline prices decreased 14.3cts to $3.582 gallon 
last week and were 59.9cts higher than the corresponding week last year.
Midwest (PADD 2) gasoline prices fell 13.8cts to $3.723 gallon and were 63.6cts 
above the same week a year earlier.
Prices for the same product at the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) declined 8.4cts to 
$3.437 gallon and stood 59.3cts higher than 2025 levels.
Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) gasoline prices posted the largest weekly decline, 
falling 25.9cts to $3.845 gallon, while remaining 66.8cts above the same week 
last year.
West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline prices dropped 17.2cts to $5.057 gallon, the 
second-largest regional decline on the week, and were 89.5cts higher than the 
corresponding week in 2025.
Gasoline prices at West Coast less California dropped 17.9cts to $4.665 gallon 
and were 81cts higher than year ago levels.

    

    




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