EIA: STEO Expects Brent to Average $88 bbl in Q2 26


   
Maria Eugenia Garcia
DTN Energy Editor

   HOUSTON, TX (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration projects Brent 
crude oil spot price will climb from an average of $81 bbl in the first quarter 
of 2026 to an average of $115 bbl in the second quarter, before falling to $88 
bbl  by the fourth quarter, according to its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook 
(STEO) released Tuesday (3/10). The agency forecasts Brent crude prices will 
average $76 bbl in 2027.

   "We base this on the assumption that the conflict does not persist past 
April and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes but does 
not return to pre-conflict levels until late 2026," EIA said.

   According to the report, production shut-ins averaged 7.5 million bpd in 
March and will increase to a peak of 9.1 million bpd in April before gradually 
declining over the coming months. These disruptions imply a global inventory 
draw of 5.1 million b/d in 2Q26, the EIA stated.

   On the demand side, the EIA anticipates global oil demand to grow to an 
average of 600,000 bpd in 2026, down from an average of 1.2 million bpd in 
February's STEO. Once supply normalizes later in 2026, the agency expects 
global oil demand will rise by 1.6 million bpd in 2027 to 106.2 million bpd.

   The EIA-STEO report projects U.S. crude oil inventories will remain above 
average, tempering the upward price pressure on WTI prices relative to Brent.

   The agency expects the Brent-WTI spread to peak at $15 bbl in April - when 
production disruptions are most pronounced -- and fall to $9 bbl on average in 
the third quarter of 2026 and $4 bbl in the fourth quarter when the majority of 
disruptions to global crude oil production and trade will dissipate.

   Downstream, the EIA-STEO report expects U.S. retail gasoline prices to 
average $3.70 gallon in 2026 and $3.46 gallon in 2027, both up from $3.10 
gallon in 2025. Diesel prices are forecast to average $4.80 gallon this year 
and $4.11 gallon in 2027, both up from $3.66 gallon in 2025.




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