OPEC: World Oil Demand Stays at 1.4M Bpd, Saudi Boost Aids


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- OPEC said in its monthly report released Wednesday 
(3/11) it was too early for the producer group to determine the impact of the 
Iran war on the global economy, although it expected its members to step up 
with more supply -- like Saudi Arabia did before the outbreak of the latest 
Middle East conflict.

   The March report highlighted that Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil 
production in February to 10.882 million bpd, with the kingdom's supply to the 
market itself reaching 10.111 million bpd. The ramp-up was part of a 
contingency plan established ahead of the recent conflict to help secure market 
stability in the event of supply disruption.

   OPEC maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 million 
bpd, unchanged from the previous assessment.

   While the report did not explicitly detail the impacts of the Iran war, it 
observed that market structure is being supported by firm physical 
fundamentals. It also acknowledged the influence of supply outages and concerns 
on further potential disruptions.

   "Ongoing geopolitical developments warrant close monitoring, although their 
impact, if any, on the growth forecast may be too early to determine," OPEC 
said in its assessment of the global economy.

   The report came amid the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a 
critical chokepoint for Middle East oil exports. Major OPEC producers are 
facing challenges in finding alternatives to the waterway that used to carry 21 
million bpd of petroleum liquids, amid attacks by Iran on both vessels in the 
strait and at the energy infrastructure of its neighbors.

   According to the report, crude output from OPEC+ -- which refers to the 
broader OPEC alliance with 10 other oil producers -- averaged 42.72 million bpd 
in February, an increase of 445,000 bpd compared to January.

   In reviewing conditions in the U.S., OPEC said U.S. Gulf Coast refiners 
faced a more constructive margin environment in February, supported by seasonal 
maintenance-related production declines.

   USGC refining margins against WTI rose to a three-month high in February, 
though they remained below levels seen during the same period last year. The 
improvement was driven primarily by gasoline and middle distillate strength, as 
severe weather in late January led several regional refineries to shift into 
planned maintenance shutdowns, OPEC noted.

   Preliminary data shows that refinery intake in the USGC decreased by 650 
tb/d month-on-month to an average of 16.16 mb/d in February, OPEC said in its 
review. Despite the decline, gasoil stocks in the region remained elevated due 
to the impact of robust stock builds observed in previous months, it added.

   Venezuelan production saw a recovery in February, with secondary sources 
reporting an output of 903,000 bpd, an increase of 80,000 month-on-month, OPEC 
said.




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