Oil Dips as Israel Media Hints at Looming Iran Ceasefire


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN ) - Crude futures dipped Wednesday amid conflicting 
reports on whether the U.S. and Iran were in talks to find a solution to the 
more than three-week long Middle East conflict, with Israeli media suggesting 
an impending ceasefire.

   NYMEX WTI for May delivery settled down $2.03 at $90.32 bbl, after a session 
low at $86.46. ICE Brent for May closed down $2.27at $102.22 bbl, off the 
intraday low of $97.15.

   Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for April delivery retreated by $0.2846 to end at 
$4.0063 gallon. Front-month NYMEX RBOB gasoline declined by $0.1356 to $3.0124 
gallon.

   Energy markets initially tumbled on reports that Iran had received a 
15-point U.S. peace proposal. But Tehran denied it was in any diplomatic 
process with the U.S. and that it was still defending itself from attacks by 
Israel.

   "Iran has no intention to hold talks with the U.S.," Iranian Foreign 
Minister Abbas Araghchi said. "The exchange of messages via mediators does not 
mean negotiation with the U.S."

   White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said the White House had 
not confirmed the existence of the 15-point peace report, despite saying there 
were "elements of truth" to it. She also said it too early to decide if the 
Trump administration was satisfied with the progress of the war and the changes 
brought to Iran by the U.S.-Israel military campaign.

   Israeli television, however, said Trump could announce a ceasefire "by next 
Saturday".

   The conflict that began on February 27 has severely cut into the oil 
production and exports of OPEC members in the region, creating what the 
International Energy Agency labeled as the largest supply disruption in history.

   The Strait of Hormuz remains a primary flashpoint, with most shippers 
avoiding the waterway that typically handles approximately 20 million bpd of 
petroleum liquids. Analysts warn that even if a ceasefire allows transit to 
resume, regional crude production will likely require months to recover to 
pre-war output levels.

   Iraqi officials said output in the country's prolific southern fields has 
fallen about 80% as storage hit capacity from the Hormuz blockade. BP and Eni 
have been told to cut production at major Iraq fields, said the officials, 
warning of further rationing if regional disruptions persist.




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