WTI Up 15% in Oct. on Fears of Iran War Escalation


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- Crude futures settled up for a fourth consecutive week 
Friday (10/30), finishing October up 15%, amid heightened maritime attacks in 
the Strait of Hormuz as the world braced for a major military re-escalation in 
the U.S.-Iran conflict.

   Energy market participants are repositioning themselves ahead of next week's 
U.S. midterm elections -- the results and after-effects of which could result 
in sweeping changes for the oil complex. Among the is the possibility of 
another joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran matching the intensity of the 
40-day air raid through early April.

   NYMEX WTI crude for December delivery rose $1.98, or 1.98%, to settle at 
$104.12 bbl. For the week, front-month WTI finished up almost 1%, advancing for 
a fourth straight week.  For all of October, WTI rose around 15%, rising its 
most since July.

   ICE Brent crude for December delivery moved up $2.76, or 2.40%, to settle at 
$117.64 bbl. Brent gained 1.5% on the week, also marking its fourth consecutive 
weekly rally. Like WTI, Brent also rose ab out 15% on the month for its 
strongest rally since July.

   Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery climbed $0.0545, or 1.15%, to 
settle at $4.7905 gallon, though it ended the week down around 2%. For the 
month, it was flat.

   NYMEX RBOB gasoline for November advanced $0.1270, or 3.99%, to $3.3120 
gallon, recording a 0.6% gain for the week. For the month, it fell almost 4%.

   The U.S. dollar index slid 0.235 points on the day to 101.655 against a 
basket of foreign currencies, lending additional support to dollar-denominated 
commodities.

   While Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Friday and U.S. Vice President 
JD Vance outlined parameters for direct negotiations, ongoing U.S. military 
force accumulation--including a third aircraft carrier strike group and 
amphibious landing units slated to arrive by late November--kept geopolitical 
risk premiums firmly embedded across the petroleum complex.

   Maritime supply disruptions on the Strait of Hormuz also accelerated into 
Friday afternoon following reports that four commercial tankers were struck by 
mines and remote explosive devices along alternative bypass routes near the 
Omani coast, including an attack 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, 
that disabled a vessel's engine room.

   While U.S. Central Command asserted it had cleared primary shipping channels 
through the Strait, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) disputed the 
claims, warning that unauthorized southern passage routes remain heavily mined.

   The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center confirmed 43 security 
incidents involving commercial shipping in the Gulf region during October alone 
-- 30 of which were direct strikes on tankers -- marking the highest monthly 
concentration of attacks since hostilities broke out in late February.




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