MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Miguel E. Andujar
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News July 24th:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- USWC Weekly: PNW CARBOB Price Up 22cts on Mideast Tensions
-- USGC Weekly: ULSD Spot Price More than Double Y-o-Y
-- Midwest Weekly: Group 3 ULSD Up 27cts, Tailing NYMEX ULSD
-- CFTC: WTI Net Longs Build as Futures Hold Above $80
-- Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rigs Rise By 5 to 791
-- AAR: Petroleum Carloads DN 2.0% for Week Ended July 18
-- Analysis: Even Minor U.S. Outages Could Send Gas Soaring
NEWS
USWC Weekly: PNW CARBOB Price Up 22cts on Mideast Tensions
U.S. West Coast refined products spot prices increased across the region for
a third consecutive week through July 24, as escalating hostilities in the
Middle East renewed concerns about a global supply shock.
San Francisco CARBOB regular spot price saw the steepest increase, climbing
22cts, or 6.21%, to a weekly average of $3.7262 gallon from the prior week, and
was up 58% from the previous year.
Portland posted the largest weekly increase in jet fuel prices among West
Coast markets, with spot values rising 20.70cts, or 5.65%, to $3.8703 gallon,
up 61.37% from the same period last year, amid limited supply and strong
fundamentals demand.
The rally on the U.S. West Coast cash market was underpinned by mixed
regional inventory data. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
release Wednesday (7/22) showed distillate fuel oil inventories in PADD 5 fell
by 100,000 bbl to 10.8 million bbl. However, they were 100,000 bbl higher than
a year ago. Distillates imports into the region rose 21,000 bpd to 48,000 bpd
and increased 30,000 bpd compared with the same week last year.
Jet fuel stocks declined by 500,000 bbl to 11.6 million bbl during the
profiled week, leaving stocks 800,000 bbl below year-ago levels, according to
the EIA.
In contrast, motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 5 region climbed by
300,000 bbl to 29.7 million bbl, although they remained 2.6 million bbl lower
than a year earlier.
West Coast refinery utilization fell to 88.7% in the week ended July 17 from
91.0% the previous week, EIA data showed.
USGC Weekly: ULSD Spot Price More than Double Y-o-Y
HOUSTON TX (DTN) -- Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) at the Houston origin of
the Colonial Pipeline in the U.S. Gulf Coast spot market climbed 4.88% on the
week ending July 24, and more than doubled from a year earlier. The gain
mirrored a rally on the NYMEX ULSD futures contract as escalating conflict in
the Middle East heightened concerns over tightening global supplies.
ULSD averaged $4.1178 gallon in the cash market, up 19.15cts, or 4.88%, from
the previous week, and was $2.3124, or 127.5%, above the $1.8137 gallon average
price reached in the same week last year, DTN data showed.
The increase came despite a build in distillate inventories in the U.S. Gulf
Coast reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the week ended
July 17. PADD 3 distillate stocks rose by 800,000 bbl to 43.1 million bbl
during the reference week, the EIA said. Distillate balances, however, remained
500,000 bbl below the 43.6 million bbl reported during the same week last year.
The spot price of jet fuel strengthened by 18.17cts, or 5.12%, to an average
of $3.7300 gallon. It was 74% higher than the $2.1387 gallon average reached in
the same period last year, reflecting the limited supply situation.
The EIA reported that Gulf Coast jet fuel inventories slipped by 100,000 bbl
to 16 million bbl during the week ended July 18 but remained 1.4 million bbl
above the same week last year. Jet fuel imports into the region averaged 28,000
bpd after no imports were reported the previous week.
PADD 3 gasoline prices also moved higher amid strong summer driving demand.
Gulf Coast CBOB regular surged by 7.41cts, or 2.39%, to $3.1690 gallon as of
July 24, and was 63.96% above the $1.9304 gallon average of the same week last
year.
Motor gasoline inventories in the Gulf Coast increased by 2.7 million bbl to
78.2 million bbl during the week ended July 18 but were 8.5 million bbl below
the volume recorded during the same period last year.
Refinery production in PADD 3 was under pressure as refinery utilization
fell to 96.7% from 97.1% a week earlier, while some major oil companies shut in
Gulf Coast platform operations ahead of Tropical Storm Bertha.
Separately, Flint Hills Resources and Citgo reported flaring events at their
facilities in Corpus Christi during the week, while Marathon Petroleum also
filed an emission event for its Galveston, Texas, refinery.
Midwest Weekly: Group 3 ULSD Up 27cts, Tailing NYMEX ULSD
SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- Midwest spot fuel prices extended their upward run
during the week ended July 24, with ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) leading
regional gains as strong futures buying reinforced tight underlying physical
fundamentals.
Group 3 ULSD logged the largest regional advance, rising 27.06cts, or 7.64%,
to a weekly average of $3.8144 gallon, pricing data monitored by DTN showed.
Chicago ULSD recorded another robust gain, adding 26.56cts, or 7.82%, to
settle at a weekly average of $3.6619 gallon. Year over year, Chicago ULSD
remained up 59.69%, or $1.3956 above its 2025 level.
Group 3 jet fuel also posted steep gains, climbing 10.56cts, or 2.82%, to
average $3.8499 gallon. That closing value marks a $1.3456 increase, or 58.05%,
over the same period last year.
Chicago jet fuel bucked the regional upward momentum, falling 5.14cts, or
1.50%, to finish at a weekly average of $3.3679 gallon. Despite the weekly dip,
the product remained up $1.1606, or 52.45%, from its year-ago level.
The Midwest distillate strength was largely driven by a rally in ULSD
futures, which gained over 3% on the week after surging 14% and 12% in the two
preceding weeks.
The rally in ULSD futures came amid international supply disruptions that
included a diesel export ban ordered by Moscow, following Ukrainian strikes on
Russian refining capacity.
U.S. supply tightness added to the market's upside. PADD 2 distillate fuel
oil inventories fell by 300,000 bbl on the week to 28.6 million bbl during the
week ended July 17, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.
Refinery utilization in the Midwest rose to 100.3% versus the prior week's
99.1% and remained above the year-ago level of 97.8%.
CFTC: WTI Net Longs Build as Futures Hold Above $80
Money managers built up bullish bets in NYMEX West Texas Intermediate during
the week ended July 21 as futures of the U.S. crude benchmark staged a
sustained rally above $80 bbl.
Noncommercial long positions in WTI increased by 7,753 contracts to 310,182
during the reference week, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission
data released Friday (7/24).
Noncommercial short positions dropped by 11,253 contracts to 228,493 during
the same period.
The combined shift raised the net long position in WTI by 19,006 contracts
to 81,689 contracts.
Total open interest, meanwhile, contracted by 11,009 contracts to stand at
1,864,487 contracts.
WTI futures traded below $79 bbl early in the reference period before a
sharp 4.5% gain on July 17 carried the benchmark above $80 bbl.
The upward momentum extended through July 21 to settle at $84.34 bbl,
marking a weekly gain of over 7%. That price surge prompted speculators to
cover bearish bets while adding fresh long positions.
Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rigs Rise By 5 to 791
North American energy drilling activity increased this week, Baker Hughes'
weekly rotary rigs report released Friday (7/24) showed, with the regional
count of active rigs growing by five to 791, from a prior 786.
Year on year, rigs for Canada and the United States combined were up 67 from
the 724 actively deployed in the exact same week of 2025.
The present week's higher numbers were driven by Canadian activity jumping
by six rigs, which offset a minor decline of one rig in the U.S.
In the U.S. alone, oil-directed rigs dropped by two to 450, while
gas-directed drilling numbers rose by one to 127. Miscellaneous rigs in the
domestic market were flat to stand at a total of 10.
By trajectory, horizontal U.S. rigs were unchanged at 524, vertical units
rose by one to 13, and directional rigs fell by one to 48.
AAR: Petroleum Carloads DN 2.0% for Week Ended July 18
SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- The Association of American Railroads reported that
petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 10,924 during the week ended
July 18, down 2.0% from a year ago.
Table of key AAR data for week ended July 18:
July 18, 2026
Year-To-Date
Cars Y/Y change (%)
Cumulative Y/Y change (%)
Total Carloads 226,883 -1.2%
6,344,225 2.9%
Petroleum and Products 10,924 -2.0%
307,162 7.0%
Total Intermodal Units 297,017 7.2%
7,831,914 3.8%
Total Traffic 523,900 3.4%
14,176,139 3.4%
Analysis: Even Minor U.S. Outages Could Send Gas Soaring
U.S. fuel prices have been on a steep rise so far this month, with the
national average for a gallon of regular gasoline topping the $4-mark this week
for the first time in five weeks. The latest jump came on the back of surging
crude prices amid amassing oil supply disruptions, all while fuels supply and
inventories remained tight.
Front-month RBOB futures closed at $3.4964 gallon Thursday (7/23), having
risen by more than 20% so far this month. DTN data showed the national gasoline
rack average rising to $3.6837 gallon during this time, up nearly 14%. Retail
prices for regular gasoline on Thursday averaged $4.091 gallon, according to
AAA.
Record-high product cracks have had U.S. refiners operating at near-maximum
capacity for weeks. Energy Information Administration data showed nationwide
utilization rates averaging 96.2% over the past four weeks. During this period,
they processed 17.1 million bpd of crude oil, up 128,000 bpd year-on-year and
the seasonally most since 2019, when net inputs were some 250,000 bpd higher.
Back then, however, domestic refining capacity was 800,000 bpd above today's
levels.
Sustained operations near maximum capacity and maintenance deferments have
boosted outage risks. What's more, the lack of spare fuels production capacity
means that any supply disruption will be hard to replace. These factors served
as yet another catalyst for the surge in refined product prices, with
consequently rising margins ironically incentivizing refiners to continue to
run their units as hard as possible.
Despite the breakneck refining pace, gasoline inventories continued to
decline amid the seasonal rise in domestic demand, higher international buying
interest, and refiners opting to produce more diesel and jet fuel at the
expense of gasoline output. Nationwide gasoline stockpiles have been hovering
near the lowest seasonal levels in 14 years. The lack of cushions compounds the
impacts of any supply disruption on both prices and fuel availability.
In addition to the elevated outage risk from the persistently high strain on
their units, U.S. refiners will also have to deal with weather-induced
disruptions. DTN forecasts below-average storm activity this hurricane season
-- but given the already strained supply situation, the lack of spare capacity
and low inventories, it may take much less than a hurricane making landfall
along the Gulf Coast refining hub to send prices at the pump soaring.
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