Midwest Gasoline Basis Firmer in 2025 on Year


   
Maria Eugenia Garcia
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) -- Midwest gasoline prices strengthened on average  in 
2025 from a year earlier, as Group 3 sub-octane barrels and Chicago CBOB traded 
at a narrower e discounts to the front-month NYMEX RBOB futures contract, 
despite a late-year price slide amid stable regional inventories.

   Chicago CBOB averaged a discount of about 11cts to front-month RBOB in 2025, 
compared with an average 15cts discount in 2024, based on DTN price data. Group 
3 sub-octane gasoline showed a similar pattern, averaging about at a 10cts 
discount in 2025 versus roughly 15.5cts the prior year. The narrower annual 
averages reflected a firmer pricing structure for much of 2025, despite periods 
of volatility and softening towards year-end.

   That strength eroded late in the year. On the final trading day of 2025, 
Chicago CBOB was assessed at a 17cts discount to front-month RBOB, wider than 
the 8cts discount recorded on December 31, 2024. Group 3 sub-octane was 
assessed at a 23cts discount at year-end, compared with a 12cts discount at the 
close of 2024. The  widening at year-end pointed the softer seasonal demand and 
improving supply availability heading into winter.

   In a longer-term context, 2025 pricing more closely resembled conditions 
seen during 2020, when Chicago CBOB averaged about an 11cts discount and Group 
3 about 8.5cts, rather than the weaker basis environment that dominated much of 
2024. The comparison highlights how 2025 was defined more by balance than by 
structural oversupply, despite the late-year pullback.

   Inventory levels helped shapeboth the stronger annual averages and the 
softer year-end tone.  U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed 
PADD 2 gasoline stocks stood at 50.6 million bbl in the week ended December 26, 
compared with 49.8 million bbl in the same week last year. With inventories 
ending the year slightly higher than a year earlier, the market lacked a 
supply-driven catalyst to support spot gasoline prices into year-end, even as 
overall balances remained relatively stable.




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