MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Miguel E. Andujar
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News July 17th:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- USGC Weekly: Jet Fuel Leads Spot Price Rally
-- Midwest Weekly: Chicago Jet Leads Surge in Global Squeeze
-- USWC Weekly: Fuel Spot Prices Rise Tracking Futures Rally
-- AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 6.0% for Week Ended July 11
-- Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rigs Rise By 26 to 786
-- Analysis: U.S. Refining Margins Soar on Gasoline Shortage
NEWS:
USGC Weekly: Jet Fuel Leads Spot Price Rally
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) fuel spot prices strengthened during the week ended
July 17, supported by a decline in gasoline inventories, which fell to their
lowest level in nearly eight years, while crude oil stocks remained near
five-month lows. The drawdown in stockpiles was fueled by renewed concerns over
potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jet fuel posted the strongest weekly advance, rising 67.82cts, or 23.19%,
week over week to average $3.6022 gallon, as the USGC continued to serve as a
critical supplier to the global aviation market. The weekly jet fuel spot price
average was 58.49% above the corresponding period of the previous year.
Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) spot prices also rallied on the week,
increasing 55.50cts, or 16.25%, to average $3.9715 gallon. This was 71.83%
higher than the value reported during the same period last year. Firm seasonal
demand combined with constrained global supply following Russia's export
restrictions after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted key refinery facilities
provided the primary support for the diesel spot rally.
On gasoline, CBOB regular in the USGC region increased 28.82cts, or 10.15%,
to average $3.1270 gallon on a weekly basis and was 65.02% higher than during
the same period last year.
The weekly advances came as front-month WTI crude futures climbed roughly
13% during the week, moving above the $80 bbl threshold from the previous
Friday's settlement of $71.41 bbl to settle at $82.49 bbl. The rally was driven
by renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran, along with
escalating concerns over the Strait of Hormuz.
Mixed inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration
underscored continued tightness in the Gulf Coast fuels market. PADD 3 gasoline
inventories fell by 900,000 bbl to 75.5 million bbl during the week ended July
10, the lowest level since the week ended September 22, 2017, when stocks were
74.2 million bbl. Inventories remained 9 million bbl below the same week of the
previous year, while gasoline imports declined to 29,000 bpd from 59,000 bpd
the prior week.
Distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 2 million bbl to 45.9 million
bbl, though stocks remained near historically tight seasonal levels.
Inventories were 2.7 million bbl above the same week of the previous year.
Meanwhile, jet fuel inventories increased by 500,000 bbl to 17.1 million bbl,
standing 2.2 million bbl above the comparable week of the previous year.
PADD 3 crude oil inventories fell by 1.3 million bbl to 235.9 million bbl,
the lowest level since the week ended February 27, 2026, and 4.9 million bbl
below the same week of the previous year. Crude imports increased slightly to
846,000 bpd from 841,000 bpd the prior week.
Refining activity in the U.S. Gulf Coast remained elevated, with refinery
utilization increasing to 97.1% from 96.5% as crude oil inputs rose to 9.507
million bpd. Several facilities reported isolated emission events, including
Phillips 66's 277,000 bpd Sweeny refinery, CITGO's 167,000 bpd Corpus Christi
West refinery, and Alon USA's 74,000 bpd Big Spring refinery. However, no
prolonged outages or major regional supply disruptions were reported.
Midwest Weekly: Chicago Jet Leads Surge in Global Squeeze
Midwest spot fuel prices retained their upward momentum during the week
ended July 17, with aviation fuel again leading the surge amid global supply
constraints forced by the Russia-Ukraine war and regional refinery bottlenecks.
Chicago jet fuel skyrocketed by 51.96cts to a weekly average of $3.4221
gallon, pricing data monitored by DTN showed. That left the product up $1.2738
from its year-ago average, representing an annual jump of 58%.
Group 3 ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) posted the second largest regional
advance, climbing 39.96cts to finish at a weekly average of $3.5391 gallon. On
the year, the premium distillate product stood a massive $1.2063 higher than
its corresponding 2025 average.
Group 3 jet fuel also recorded stellar gains by rising 38.91cts to a weekly
average of $3.7266 gallon. That closing value leaves the regional spot price
$1.4013 higher than the same week last year.
Chicago ULSD recorded another significant regional increase by climbing
36.21cts on the week to finish at a weekly average of $3.3806 gallon.
The surge in jet fuel and other distillate prices comes amid a Russian ban
on diesel exports following Ukrainian attacks on the country's refineries which
have stifled refining capacity and deepened the global deficit in middle
distillates.
The crunch is compounding localized physical pressures in the PADD 2 region,
where processing slack remains thin due to an ongoing labor dispute at BP's
440,000 bpd Whiting refinery.
On the gasoline front, Chicago CBOB regular edged up 19.60cts to a weekly
average of $3.0567 gallon. That weekly advance leaves the benchmark fuel price
$1.1391 higher than the corresponding period last year.
USWC Weekly: Fuel Spot Prices Rise Tracking Futures Rally
U.S. West Coast gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spot prices climbed for a
second straight week through July 24, tracking a rally in futures markets as
traders priced in tighter supply risks amid escalating Middle East hostilities
and a renewed blockade threat of the Strait of Hormuz.
Los Angeles ULSD spot values posted the sharpest increase for a third
consecutive week, rising by 59.57cts, or 16.77%, to $4.1487 gallon. Prices were
60.13% higher than the same period a year earlier. San Francisco diesel values
climbed 51.63cts, or 14.85%, to $3.9938 gallon, up 48.21% from the previous
year.
Across the U.S. West Coast, Portland sub-octane regular gasoline recorded
the largest weekly increase among gasoline grades, rising 25.21cts, or 8.56%,
to $3.1984 gallon during the week ending July 24. Prices were 47.22% above the
same period of the previous year.
Los Angeles and San Francisco jet fuel spot prices averaged $3.7242 gallon,
increasing 42.77cts, or 12.97%, from the previous week. Year over year, prices
in both markets were 55.56% higher.
The weekly advances came as front-month WTI crude futures climbed from the
previous Friday's settlement of $81 bbl to settle at $82.49 bbl Friday,
supported by renewed concerns over the Iran conflict and potential disruptions
through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. West Coast gasoline and distillate inventories declined last week while
jet fuel stocks increased in the week ended July 4, Energy Information
Administration data showed.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 5 region rose 500,000 bbl to 29.4
million bbl during the week ended July 10, the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status
Report showed. Year-on-year, stocks were down 1.8 million bbl.
U.S. West Coast distillate fuel oil inventories fell 200,000 bbl to 10.9
million bbl during the reference week but were 400,000 bbl higher than the
volume seen in the same period last year, EIA data showed. Jet fuel stocks in
the region fell by 200,000 bbl to 12.1 million bbl but were 600,000 bbl higher
than the previous year.
Crude oil inventories in PADD 5 rose by 800,000 bbl to 46.1 million bbl
during the reporting week but were 2.5 million bbl lower than the same week
last year. Crude imports increased by 29,000 bpd to 939,000 bpd and were
283,000 bpd lower compared with the same week of the previous year.
Refinery utilization on the West Coast slipped to 90.2% from 91% the
previous week, according to EIA data.
On Tuesday (7/14), PBF Energy reported a planned week-long flaring event at
its 166,000 bpd Torrance, California, refinery, according to a filing with the
South Coast Air Quality Management District. Flaring began at 9:26 a.m. PT on
Monday (7/13) and is expected to continue until 11:59 p.m. PT on Monday (7/20),
the filing stated.
AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 6.0% for Week Ended July 11
The Association of American Railroads reported that petroleum and petroleum
product carloads totaled 11,847 during the week ended July 11, up 6.0% from a
year ago.
U.S. Rail Traffic
Week 27, 2026 -- Ended July 11, 2026
Category This Week: Cars This Week vs 2025
Year-To-Date: Year-To-Date: Avg/wk Year-To-Date: vs
Cumulative
^2 2025
Total Carloads 223,040 -0.4% 6,117,342
226,568 3.1%
Chemicals 32,605 0.01% 915,338
33,901 2.7%
Coal 53,527 -8.1% 1,528,626
56,616 -1.0%
Farm Products excl. Grain, and 18,093 4.8% 473,494
17,537 3.7%
Food
Forest Products 8,739 6.0% 222,300
8,233 -0.03%
Grain 21,446 -5.3% 649,391
24,052 13.9%
Metallic Ores and Metals 21,857 8.0% 559,009
20,704 6.7%
Motor Vehicles and Parts 13,129 1.1% 421,017
15,593 0.9%
Nonmetallic Minerals 32,823 4.0% 805,322
29,827 2.2%
Petroleum and Petroleum Products 11,847 6.0% 296,238
10,972 7.4%
Other 8,974 0.9% 246,607
9,134 0.3%
Total Intermodal Units 280,485 3.0% 7,534,897
279,070 3.6%
Total Traffic 503,525 1.5% 13,652,239
Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rigs Rise By 26 to 786
North American energy drilling activity increased this week, Baker Hughes
weekly rotary rigs report released Friday (7/17) showed, with the regional
count of active rigs growing by 26 to 786, from a prior 760.
Year on year, rigs for Canada and the United States combined were up 70 from
the 716 actively deployed in the exact same week of 2025.
The present week's higher numbers showed synchronized domestic increases, as
the U.S. tally rose by seven while Canadian activity jumped significantly by 19
rigs.
In the U.S. alone, oil-directed rigs increased by seven to 452, while
gas-directed drilling numbers held steady at 126. Miscellaneous rigs in the
domestic market were also flat to stand at a total of 10.
By trajectory, horizontal U.S. rigs increased by seven to 524, vertical
units fell by one to 12, and directional rigs rose by one to 49.
Analysis: U.S. Refining Margins Soar on Gasoline Shortage
The 3:2:1 crack spread versus WTI broke the $70 bbl mark in intraday trading
Thursday (7/17), the first time it has reached that level on record. As U.S.
fuels inventories are rapidly shrinking, the spread in late June soared
eclipsing its Iran-war highs from May and surpassing the previous record set in
April 2022 during Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The divergence between crude oil and oil product futures was partly brought
upon by the sudden resurgence of crude supply from the Middle East, even as
global refinery runs were still at multi-year lows. Over the past four months,
the largest oil supply disruption in history has eroded crude demand much more
significantly than consumer's fuel demand. At the same time, fuels supply was
just as affected as crude supply, and all this came against a backdrop of the
global crude market tilting into record oversupply at the beginning of the year
while the refined products balance remained level. The resurgence of Persian
Gulf exports last month consequently sent crude prices plunging, while product
futures held on to a significant portion of their war-gains.
On July 2, when oil prices reached their post-war nadir ahead of the most
recent re-escalation in fighting between the United States and Iran,
front-month NYMEX WTI crude futures contract contract closed at $68.69 bbl, up
2.5% from February 27 close, the last trading day before the start of the
U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began. ULSD futures in contrast, closed at $3.1822
gallon, up 19%, and RBOB was up 40% from pre-war levels at $2.9173 gallon.
Another main driving force behind this uneven price development was the
unprecedented rate of depletion in U.S. fuel inventories, particularly
gasoline, which within three months plummeted from a five-year seasonal high to
a 14-year seasonal low. Nationwide gasoline stockpiles fell to 210.5 million
bbl last week, the least for this time of year since 2012, down 9.6%
year-on-year and 8.4% below the five-year average.
The pace of gasoline inventory draws since early April was three to four
times faster than is typical for the season and came as a direct result of the
Strait of Hormuz supply crisis. Refined product exports soared during the
Strait supply disruption, further tightening inventories, while U.S. refiners
optimized operations toward maximizing yields of products most affected by the
crisis, including jet fuel at the expense of gasoline output.
U.S. refiners have little scope to ramp up crude throughputs given
utilization is already near maximum capacity. A sustained global supply
disruption caused by a renewed conflict, just as demand is reaching its
seasonal peak, will have inventories dwindle fast and give them little room for
error. All this comes after months of margin-incentivized break-neck pace
refining, which greatly increases maintenance needs and outage risks. Given the
recent trajectory of crack spreads, domestic refiners will have no reason to
slow down -- at least not voluntarily.
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