Dallas Fed: Oil Executives See WTI at $88 in 2026


   
Maria Eugenia Garcia
DTN Energy Editor

   HOUSTON, TX (DTN) -- Executives responding to the September Dallas Fed 
Energy Survey on average expected West Texas Intermediate crude oil to reach 
$88 bbl at the end of 2026, with estimates ranging from $70 to $126 bbl. 

   For longer-term expectations, respondents put the average WTI price at $79 
bbl two years from now and $82 bbll five years from now, according to the 
survey released Wednesday (9/30).

   Respondents expected Henry Hub natural gas to reach an average of $3.29 per 
million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the end of 2026. They projected prices 
of $3.82 per MMBtu two years from now and $4.28 per MMBtu five years from now. 

   WTI spot prices averaged $98.70 bbl during the survey collection period, 
while Henry Hub spot prices averaged $2.97 per MMBtu.

   Outlooks diverged between exploration and production companies and oilfield 
services firms. The outlook index for E&P companies was 50.0, compared with 4.6 
for services firms. The overall outlook uncertainty index was 29.8, little 
changed from the previous quarter, although uncertainty was considerably higher 
among E&P firms, at 40.2, than among services firms, at 9.5.

   Executives cited several factors weighing on their outlook, including global 
oil supply, uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production cuts, and changes in trade 
policy and tariffs.

   "We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on 
commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and 
also 2027 will potentially look like," one executive said.

   Another executive raised concerns about fuel domestic prices: "I don't quite 
understand why the price is high at the pump. The U.S. has plenty of supply."

   E&P executives reported increases in both oil and natural gas production. 
The oil production index rose from 15.0 in the second quarter to 20.7 in the 
third, while the natural gas production index increased from 3.7 to 14.8.

    




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