MARKETWIRE ALERTS


   
   MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

   MarketWire Afternoon News July 7th:

   Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

    

   HEADLINES:

    

   -- API: Crude Stocks Continue 11-Week Decline

   -- Midwest Jet Fuel Basis Mixed as ULSD Futures Flatten

   -- USGC Jet Fuel Basis Dips to 15-Mo Low on Active Trading  

   -- U.S. Ends Iran Sanctions Waiver After Hormuz Attacks

   -- EIA: STEO Eyes Brent at $81.91 bbl, WTI $76.26 bbl in 2026

   -- BTS: U.S. Airline Fuel Spending Rises 3% in May

   -- EIA: Henry Hub 2026 Outlook Raised 2% in July STEO

   -- Shell Eyes Higher Q2 Refining Margins, Lower Output

   -- EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline at Lowest Since March

   -- EIA: Weekly U.S. Diesel Price Falls to 4-Month Low

    

   NEWS:

    

   API: Crude Stocks Continue 11-Week Decline

   U.S. crude oil stockpiles declined for an 11th consecutive week during the 
week ended July 3, while gasoline and distillate inventories also moved lower, 
the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday (7/7).

   U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell by 399,000 bbl last week, below the 
6.072 million bbl draw reported in the previous week.

   API reported a crude inventory draw of 69,000 bbl at the Cushing, Oklahoma, 
delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, reversing the 503,000 
bbl build seen during the prior week.

   Gasoline inventories declined by 2.929 million bbl, above the 2.106 million 
bbl draw reported in the previous week.

   Distillate fuel oil stocks fell by 1.801 million bbl, reversing the 2.9 
million bbl increase reported last week.

    

   Midwest Diesel, Jet Fuel Basis Mixed as ULSD Futures Rise

   Differentials for Midwest diesel and jet fuel were mixed Monday (7/6) as 
rising futures of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on NYMEX led to varying 
outcomes for the cash market in PADD 2 distillates.

   Chicago ULSD was talked at discount of 43cts gallon to August NYMEX ULSD, 
strengthening 2cts from the prior session.

   On the Buckeye and Wolverine pipelines, the ULSD discounts were talked at 
38cts gallon, widening by 3cts.

   Chicago jet fuel was heard at a 55cts futures discount, weakening by 3cts.

   Among Group 3 products, the cash basis for ULSD was assessed at a discount 
of 29.5cts gallon to August ULSD futures, widening by 2.5cts.

   The spot differential for Group 3 jet fuel was at a 27cts discount, 
narrowing by 2cts.

   In the futures market, August NYMEX ULSD advanced 11.62cts Monday to settle 
at $3.2984 gallon.

   The mixed basis for Midwest distillate products also came on the back of a 
600,000 bbl build in PADD 2 distillate inventories to 27.8 million bbl reported 
by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for the week ended June 26. 
Regional jet fuel stocks, meanwhile, fell by 300,000 bbl to 7.5 million bbl.

    

   USGC Jet Fuel Basis Dips to 15-Mo Low on Active Trading

   U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel basis weakened Tuesday (7/7), falling to its lowest 
level in more than 15 months as higher ULSD futures outpaced changes in the 
physical market.

   USGC jet fuel basis was assessed at a 53.75cts discount to August NYMEX ULSD 
futures, based on trades reported at that level on the day. This was 4.25cts 
lower than Monday's 49.50cts discount , reaching its lowest level since March 
31, 2025, when it was assessed at a 90.25cts discount, according to DTN Energy 
data.

   Front-month ULSD futures settled at $3.3532 gallon Tuesday, up from 5.48cts 
from the previous session's settlement of $3.2984 gallon

   Although USGC jet fuel basis fell to a multi-year low on the day, spot 
prices were assessed at $2.8233 gallon on Tuesday, remaining at their highest 
level since June 11, when they settled at $3.1106 gallon, according to DTN 
Energy data.

   The wider discount suggests the recent weakness in basis has been driven 
primarily by stronger ULSD futures rather than a sharp decline in Gulf Coast 
jet fuel spot value.

    

   U.S. Ends Iran Sanctions Waiver After Hormuz Attacks

   The U.S. Treasury announced Tuesday (7/7) it has cancelled its temporary 
sanctions waiver on Iranian oil, following attacks by Tehran on commercial 
vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that the Trump administration said reneged on 
the ceasefire agreement between the two countries.

   In a posting on its website, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control 
(OFAC) said it has revoked General License X -- which permitted the production, 
delivery and sale of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemical products, and 
petroleum products.

   The license was issued on June 22 for a period of 60 days. Prior to that, 
the Treasury imposed a sweeping ban on exports and sales of Iranian energy 
products.

   The reversal of sanctions came after reports of a second attack within a 
week by Iran on a laden tanker in the Hormuz. Tehran has said that all 
commercial vessels navigating the chokepoint must follow routes it had approved 
and not take alternative pathways to the Persian Gulf, warning attacks on those 
that breached its policy.

    

   EIA: STEO Eyes Brent at $81.91 bbl, WTI $76.26 bbl in 2026

   The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slashed its global crude 
price forecasts after a ceasefire deal in the Iran war reopened the Strait of 
Hormuz to oil tankers, the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for July 
showed Tuesday (7/7).

   The 2026 annual average for Brent crude is forecast at $81.91 bbl, dropping 
significantly from the $95 bbl projected in the June outlook, the EIA said.

   For 2027, Brent is seen averaging $64.76 bbl as expanding global supplies 
shift the market back into oversupply.

   In Tuesday's session, ICE Brent for September delivery hovered at around 
$74.25 gallon.

   For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the 2026 projection has been cut to 
$76.26 bbl from the prior expectation of $88.32 bbl. The 2027 WTI price 
forecast is set at $60.76 bbl.

   WTI hovered at under $70.60 bbl in Tuesday's trade.

   The EIA said it expected higher production and trade flows on the Hormuz to 
slow the pace of global oil inventory draws, which were projected to fall by 
2.2 million bpd in the third quarter compared with the prior estimated drop of 
7 million bpd.

   "We now expect most crude oil production to return to near pre-conflict 
averages by the end of this year and for the majority of shut-in crude oil 
production to be back online in the first quarter of 2027," the agency said.

   Lower crude oil prices will also drive down U.S. retail regular gasoline 
prices to an average of $3.80 gallon in the third quarter. Prices are expected 
to fall further to $3.39 gallon in the fourth quarter before averaging at $2.92 
gallon in 2027.

   In a separate weekly report on gasoline prices released Tuesday, the EIA 
said the U.S. average for pump prices stood at $3.777 gallon for the week ended 
July 6.

    

   BTS: U.S. Airline Fuel Spending Rises 3% in May

   U.S. airline fuel spending increased in May as higher fuel consumption more 
than offset a slight decline in the average price paid for jet fuel, according 
to data released Tuesday (7/7) by the Department of Transportation's Bureau of 
Transportation Statistics (BTS).

   U.S. scheduled service airlines spent $6.66 billion on fuel in May, up 3% 
from $6.47 billion in April and 83.9% higher than $3.62 billion in May 2025.

   Fuel consumption rebounded from the previous month. Airlines consumed 1.627 
billion gallons in May, up 3.5% from 1.573 billion gallons in April, while 
remaining 0.6% below the 1.636 billion gallons consumed during the same month 
last year.

   The average fuel cost eased slightly. Airlines paid an average of $4.09 
gallon in May, down 2cts, or 0.5%, from $4.11 gallon in April. Despite the 
monthly decline, the average price remained $1.88 gallon, or 85%, above the 
$2.21 gallon reported in May 2025.

   The May report showed airlines continued to face elevated fuel expenses 
despite a modest pullback in jet fuel prices, with stronger seasonal travel 
demand contributing to higher fuel consumption compared with April.

   BTS reported fuel cost figures are stated in current dollars and are not 
adjusted for inflation. Total fuel expenditures may also reflect airline 
hedging strategies, and fuel supply agreements designed to reduce exposure to 
market price fluctuations.

   The agency said the monthly data is not seasonally adjusted and may be 
revised as additional information becomes available from reporting carriers.

    

   EIA: Henry Hub 2026 Outlook Raised 2% in July STEO

   The Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. natural gas 
price outlook for 2026 in its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), reflecting 
expectations for record domestic production to satisfy growing demand while 
maintaining inventories above the five-year average.

   The Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $3.67/MMBtu in 2026, 
according to the July STEO, up about 1.9% from the agency's June forecast of 
$3.60/MMBtu. For 2027, the EIA expects Henry Hub prices to average $3.49/MMBtu, 
a 0.9% increase from the previous forecast of $3.46/MMBtu.

   Natural gas prices are projected to ease next year as abundant supplies 
offset stronger consumption. The agency expects the Henry Hub benchmark to 
average close to $3.70/MMBtu in 2026 before slipping below $3.50/MMBtu in 2027.

   Even with higher demand, storage levels are projected to remain well 
supplied. U.S. working natural gas inventories are expected to reach 3,966 Bcf 
by the end of October, about 5% above the five-year average, supported by 
record output led by associated gas production in the Permian Basin.

   Growing electricity demand remains a key driver of consumption. The EIA 
forecasts natural gas use in the electric power sector will increase 2% in 2026 
and another 4% in 2027, reaching a record 38.1 Bcf/d next year as utilities add 
gas-fired generation capacity and benefit from relatively low fuel costs.

   The agency expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $3.57/MMBtu during 
the fourth quarter of 2026, about 5% below the same period last year, before 
increasing to $3.78/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2027 as the inventory 
surplus narrows.

   Shell Eyes Higher Q2 Refining Margins, Lower Output

   Shell projected on Tuesday (7/7) stronger downstream performance for the 
second quarter, forecasting global indicative refining margin at approximately 
$20 bbl versus the $17 bbl in the first quarter.

   Refinery utilization is expected to average nearly 100%, compared to the 99% 
rate recorded during the first three months of the year, the energy major said.

   However, Shell noted that actual realized margins were expected to track 
lower than the indicative figures due to ongoing market dislocations. In terms 
of output, upstream production is forecast to range from 1.75 million to 1.85 
million boepd, compared to 1.84 million boepd in the first quarter.

   Integrated gas production is projected to drop to a range of 610,000 to 
650,000 boepd, down from 909,000 boepd in the prior quarter. The company 
attributed the lower gas volumes to the impact of the Middle East conflict on 
Qatari operations.

   Trading and optimization results within the integrated gas segment are 
expected to be significantly higher than in the first quarter.

    

   EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline at Lowest Since March

   The national average for retail regular gasoline declined in the week ended 
July 6, falling to its lowest level in nearly four months as prices eased 
across most major regions, according to data released Tuesday (7/7) by the U.S. 
Energy Information Administration.

   The U.S. average for regular gasoline dropped 5.4cts to $3.777 gallon last 
week, the lowest since the week ended March 16, when it averaged $3.566 gallon. 
The national average remained 65.2cts above the same week last year, the EIA's 
weekly fuel pricing update showed.

   East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline prices fell 4.2cts to $3.700 gallon in the week 
ended July 6, while standing 68cts higher than the corresponding week last year.

   Within the East Coast, New England (PADD 1A) gasoline prices declined 4.9cts 
to $3.806 gallon last week, remaining 78.3cts above year-ago levels.

   Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) gasoline prices slipped 4.1cts on the week to 
$3.874 gallon, 69.6cts higher than the same week last year.

   Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) gasoline prices fell 4.3cts to $3.562 gallon last 
week, while standing 64.1cts above last year's levels.

   Midwest (PADD 2) gasoline prices dropped 9.4cts to $3.531 gallon, 55.0cts 
higher than the corresponding week in 2025.

   Gulf Coast (PADD 3) gasoline prices increased 2.2cts to $3.343 gallon last 
week, remaining 65.8cts above the same week last year and marking the only 
major region to post a weekly increase.

   Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) gasoline prices dropped 5.4cts to $3.661 gallon, 
52.8cts higher year-on-year.

   West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline prices declined 8.8cts to $4.831 gallon last 
week, while remaining 75.6cts above the corresponding week last year.

   Gasoline prices in the West Coast less California region fell 11.2cts to 
$4.422 gallon, while standing 62.4cts above year-ago levels.

    

   EIA: Weekly U.S. Diesel Price Falls to 4-Month Low

   The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday (7/7) that 
retail diesel prices declined for an eighth consecutive week during the week 
ended July 6, with the national average falling 9cts to $4.578 gallon, the 
lowest level since the week ended March 2, when it averaged $3.897 gallon.

   Compared with the same time last year, diesel nationwide was up $0.839 
gallon on average.

   The weekly decline was led by a 12.5cts drop in the Midwest PADD 2 region to 
$4.458 gallon, while the smallest decrease occurred in the New England PADD 1A 
region, where prices fell 2.8cts to $5.220 gallon.

   The latest decline reflects easing wholesale diesel costs following several 
weeks of lower futures and spot market values, while healthy refinery 
production continued to keep fuel supplies well supplied despite stronger 
summer demand.

   East Coast diesel prices fell 6.4cts to $4.694 gallon for the week ended 
July 6. This PADD 1 region showed a $0.929 gallon increase compared with the 
same period last year.

   New England diesel prices declined 2.8cts to $5.220 gallon. Compared with 
the same time last year, this PADD 1A region was up $1.253 gallon.

   The Central Atlantic witnessed a 4.4cts decrease on the week. Prices in the 
PADD 1B region averaged $5.146 gallon, rising $1.210 compared with the previous 
year.

   Diesel prices in the Lower Atlantic averaged $4.477 gallon. This PADD 1C 
region reflects a 7cts decrease on the week and a $0.797 gallon rise from the 
same time last year.

   In the Midwest, diesel prices fell 12.5cts on the week. The PADD 2 region 
averaged $4.458 gallon, which was $0.725 gallon higher than levels seen a year 
earlier.

   On the Gulf Coast, diesel fell 5.8cts on the week to $4.225 gallon. Compared 
with the prior year, prices in PADD 3 were up $0.842 gallon.

   Rocky Mountain diesel saw an 11.8cts decrease on the week to $4.484 gallon. 
The PADD 4 region posted a $0.818 gallon increase compared with the same time 
last year.

   West Coast diesel prices fell 10.3cts on the week to average $5.425 gallon. 
Compared with the previous year, the PADD 5 region was up $0.963 gallon.

   West Coast less California diesel slipped 9.8cts on a weekly basis to $4.864 
gallon. This represented a $0.776 gallon increase from the same time last year.

   California diesel itself fell 10.7cts on the week to $6.073 gallon. Prices 
in the state remain the highest in the nation, sitting at $1.181 gallon above 
levels seen at the same time last year.

    




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