Oil Futures Steady Amid Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Outlook


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   Crude futures steadied Monday (11/24) as market participants weighed 
advancements in a U.S. peace initiative for Ukraine against prospects for a 
Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

   The NYMEX WTI crude futures contract for January delivery was up $0.02 to 
$58.08 bbl. January ICE Brent futures contract also rose $0.02 to $62.58 bbl.

   The December RBOB gasoline futures contract slipped by $0.0014 at $1.8820 
gallon. Front-month ULSD futures dropped $0.0545 to $2.4019 gallon.

   The U.S. Dollar Index eased 0.123 points to 99.99 against a basket of 
foreign currencies.

   Ukraine has begun negotiating an end to its war with Russia under 
U.S.-brokered talks that have been highly productive, the White House announced 
on Sunday (11/23).

   Oil markets are now focused on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine peace 
talks, which could further diminish geopolitical tensions and remove sanctions 
against Russian energy firms Rosneft and Lukoil.

   The lifting of Russian trade sanctions would add further downward pressure 
on global oil markets, which is already oversupplied according to recent 
forecasts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as 
well as the International Energy Agency (IEA).

   OPEC projected a 500,000-bpd crude surplus for the third quarter, reversing 
the 400,000-bpd deficit it forecasted in October. The IEA forecasted a 4.09 
million bpd global oversupply for 2026, versus a prior 3.97 million bpd.

   Separately, the Energy Information Administration estimated that U.S. crude 
production hit a record-high13.76 million bpd in the third quarter.

   The initiative for Ukraine peace juxtaposed with the potential for a U.S. 
rate cut within the next three weeks.

   The Fed's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting 
on December 9-10 to decide on U.S. lending rates, following back-to-back 
quarter percentage point cuts in September and October.

   Prospects for another U.S. rate cut have risen since Friday after New York 
Fed President John Williams, a key voice on the FOMC, advocated for a reduction 
to balance unemployment risks with inflation growth.




(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.