BEA: US Q4 GDP Growth Crawled to 0.7% On Federal Shutdown


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.7% in the 
fourth quarter of 2025 as a federal government shutdown slowed growth, 
according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) second estimate published 
Friday (3/13).

   The downward revision from the advance estimate of 1.4% came as exports, 
consumer and government spending, and investments were all revised lower.

   The latest gross domestic product (GDP) figure marks a sharp deceleration 
from the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter. The record-long 43-day 
government shutdown from the start of October to mid-November shaved off one 
percentage point from fourth quarter GDP growth, the BEA estimated.

   Despite the slowdown, the report highlighted continued expansion in consumer 
spending and business investment, though these gains were offset by lower 
government spending and a drop in exports.

   The BEA estimated that real GDP increased by 2.1% for the full year 2025, 
compared to the advance estimate of 2.2%, down from the 2.8% annual growth 
recorded during the previous year.

   Inflation indicators were unchanged from the advance estimate. The personal 
consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9% year-on-year in the fourth 
quarter. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, however, moderated to 2.7% from 
2.9% in Q3.

   The U.S. dollar index slid in reaction to the data release, but at 100.04 
was still up 0.29 points on the day.




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