OPEC Cuts 2026 Outlook as Saudi Output Hits 1990 Low


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) --  The 22 oil-producing countries identified as part of 
the OPEC+ network produced 1.74 million bpd less in April to average 33.19 
million bpd as global supply was impacted by the Middle East conflict and 
disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz,  the Organization of the Petroleum 
Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its May monthly report issued Wednesday 
(5/13).

   Saudi Arabia's output alone fell to its lowest in more than 35 years as it 
produced approximately 7.5 million bpd in April, its lowest since 1990.

   With those declines, OPEC revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast 
down by 210,000 bpd to 1.17 million bpd. The adjustment stems from downward 
revisions for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026 across countries 
under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as well 
as non-OECD regions.

   U.S. liquids production is expected to increase by 150,000 bpd in 2026, 
though crude and condensate output may drop by 100,000 bpd. Gains in NGLs and 
biofuels are forecast to offset the decline in US crude production.

   The OPEC Reference Basket price for crude dropped by $7.57 in April to 
average $108.79 per bbl. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI front-month futures increased by 
$7.67 during the same period to average $98.67 per bbl.

   The forecast for 2027 global oil demand growth was revised upward by 
approximately 200,000 bpd to 1.54 million bpd. Total world demand for 2027 is 
now projected to reach an average of 107.82 million bpd.




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