Analysis: U.S. Jet Fuel Hit Sky with Record May Output


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- The Strait of Hormuz closure has led to the highest U.S. 
refining margins since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as soaring jet fuel 
and diesel cracks make processing of these products particularly profitable.

   U.S. refiners have fine-tuned operations to maximize output of fuels most 
affected by the supply disruption, churning out more domestic jet fuel than 
ever last month.

   U.S. Energy Information data showed that kerosene-type jet fuel output has 
held above the 2 million bpd mark since the second half of April. In May, jet 
fuel production averaged more than 2.04 million bpd, according to preliminary 
weekly data that surpassed previous records set in March.

   Jet fuel production typically rises heading into the summer months when 
travel demand is at its peak. The outsized and early increase seen over the 
past seven weeks, however, went above and beyond the normal seasonal 
phenomenon. In May, domestic jet fuel output was up nearly 10% year-on-year, 
compared to the plus of 4.6% in the first two months of the year.

   Most Vulnerable: Mid-Barrel

   Fuels from the middle of the barrel have been the most vulnerable to the 
Hormuz closure because of several key factors.

   First, the type of crude oil affected on average yields a higher share of 
middle distillates than oil from other regions of the world. Secondly, the 
around 5 million bpd of refined product exports shut in the Persian Gulf 
constituted mostly of middle distillates.

   Additionally, the loss of Middle Eastern LNG supply made the production of 
more energy-intensive refined products like jet fuel even more expensive. 
Finally, refiners across Asia, including some of the world's largest jet fuel 
exporters, were forced to slash runs amid the sudden absence of crude flows.

   High margins and record exports have already propelled U.S. jet fuel 
production to unprecedented heights way ahead of the peak of the domestic 
demand season. Weekly EIA data suggest that domestic demand has so far been in 
line with year-ago levels, while exports were up nearly 74% year-on-year.

   Lawmakers in the European Union, meanwhile, are mulling regulatory changes 
which would facilitate the use of U.S.-produced jet fuel in European aviation, 
opening the door to more exports. Even without this change, U.S. refiners are 
likely to put out more jet fuel in the coming weeks ahead the peak domestic 
demand season, when production typically reaches the year's maximum between 
June and August.

    

    




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.