EIA: Brent Seen Down Through 2027 as Supply Beats Demand


   
Kristina Davis
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   MIAMI, FL (DTN) - Global crude oil prices are expected to remain under 
pressure through 2027 as worldwide production of petroleum and other liquid 
fuels continues to exceed demand growth, the U.S. Energy Information 
Administration said Wednesday (2/11) in analysis of its latest Short-Term 
Energy Outlook.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude will average $58 per barrel in 2026, down from an 
estimated $69 per barrel in 2025, before slipping further to $53 per barrel in 
2027. The projected decline reflects persistent inventory builds as supply 
growth outpaces consumption, even amid uncertainty surrounding crude exports 
from Russia and Venezuela.
Global oil inventories have been rising as OPEC+ members increased production 
targets and output from non-OPEC+ countries expanded. The EIA expects 
production growth from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina to add to supply this year 
and next, while slower growth in global petroleum demand has contributed to a 
gradual easing in prices since early 2024.
China's strategic petroleum stockpiling has absorbed a meaningful portion of 
excess supply, tempering sharper price declines. The EIA estimates that about 
half of the roughly 2.3 million barrels per day of non-OECD inventory builds in 
2025 stemmed from China's strategic purchases and increased floating storage 
tied to sanctioned oil flows. China is expected to continue adding about 1.0 
million barrels per day to its strategic reserves in both 2026 and 2027.
Those less visible inventory builds, along with obscured trade flows, have 
helped keep benchmark prices from falling as much as implied inventory growth 
alone would suggest. Still, commercial crude stocks are also increasing across 
OECD countries, which accounted for about 44% of global petroleum consumption 
in 2025. 

   As OECD storage capacity fills and marginal storage costs rise, the EIA said 
market pressures are likely to weigh further on crude prices and slow 
production growth, reinforcing expectations for lower Brent prices through 2027.




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